Oaks Preview – Which Girls are Bred to Stay?

Worth $1million, the Group I VRC Kennedy Oaks at Flemington on Thursday is run over a testing 2500m and this year we have no Group I winners engaged, so it’s all about potential and the ability to stay.

Pedigree will undoubtedly play a role here as these girls all set sail into uncharted waters, so lets’ take a look at what the pedigree page has to say.

1/ Miami Bound (NZ) (3f Reliable Man (GB) x Arapaho Miss, by Danehill Dancer (IRE) – Three wins from six starts and last start winner of the Group II VRC Wakeful Stakes (2000m).

By French Derby winner Reliable Man, who has already sired a New Zealand Oaks winner and dam Arapaho Miss won the VRC Oaks in 2007, add to that her half-brother De Little Engine is a Flemington stakes-winner at 3200m and you have to think Miami Bound was born to win an Oaks.

2/ Moonlight Maid (3f Puissance de Lune (IRE) x Manhattan Maid, by Choisir)  - Won the Group II VRC Edward Manifold Stakes (1600m) and last start fast finishing second to Derby place-getter Soul Patch in Group III MVRC Moonee Valley Vase (2040m).

By the sire of Southern Moon who ran second in the Victoria Derby, so that’s a big plus, although dam was a stakes-winner at 1100m and the female family is very much about speed. She does keep finding the line though, so am inclined to think her sire will take her a long way..

3/ Gamay (3f Pierro x Amish, by Canny Lad) – Two wins and two seconds from five starts and followed up second in the Oaks Trial at Flemington over 1800m with a tenacious win in the Group III MRC Ethereal Stakes (2000m).

By an outstanding source of classic horses in Pierro and while her dam only won at  1200m and none of her siblings won beyond a mile, I do like the fact the first three dams are by Canny Lad, Danehill and Bletchingly, who all left classic winners and it is a prolific Black Type family. Barrier one and Ryan Moore on board might see Gamay in this race for quite a while.

4 / Vegas Jewel (NZ) (3f Shocking x Vegas Dancer, by Stravinsky (USA) – Four starts for two wins and two seconds, most recently second in both the Wakeful and Ethereal Stakes, both at 2000m.

Trained by Mark Kavanagh, who won the Melbourne Cup with her sire Shocking and runs in the same colours. Dam is a half-sister to stakes-winner Vegas Showgirl, best known as the dam of world champion Winx, who is by Shocking’s sire Street Cry. What all of this means is that Vegas Jewel is very closely related to Winx, who was able to win a Queensland Oaks at three, albeit over 2200m. Vegas Jewel will never be as good as Winx, but she may well win this race!

5/ Foxborough (3f Dissident x Sense of Pride (Can) by Lemon  Drop Kid – Still a maiden although placed in five of eight starts including a third in the Group I ATC Flight Stakes (1600m), last start fifth in the Wakeful.

Her sire Dissident was an Australian Horse of the Year, but never won beyond a mile and her North American female family is not exactly steeped in staying  blood although her dam sire Lemon Drop Kid did win a Belmont Stakes at 2400m. Trainer has a knack with staying fillies, but still not convinced she can run the trip.

6/ Silent Sovereign (3f Dalakhani (Fr) x Silent Surround, by Face Value) – A win and  second from five starts and last start sixth in the Wakeful.

By an Arc winning classic sire in Dalakhani and dam is a Group III winner up to 1950m and does come from the family of legendary filly Surround, who won the VRC , AJC and Queensland Oaks. When bred back to staying sires this family does get classic horses and Silent Sovereign does fit the profile.

7/ Presently (3f Hinchinbrook x Before the Present, by Hussonet (USA)- Sale maiden winner over 1400m and unplaced last two starts in better company.

Nothing in this pedigree suggests 2500m will be optimum distance.

8/ Beauty Bolt (3f Redoute’s Choice x Sasa, by Encosta de Lago) – Two wins from five starts and fifth in the Edward Manifold and fifth in the Group II MVRC Moonee Valley Fillies Classic (1600m).

Facing a big jump in distance having never raced past 1600m, but champion sire has produced loads of classic horses and dam had class placing in a Group I ATC Champagne Stakes (1600m) and her dam Zatella is a Group III winner by Zabeel up to 2200m. A long way from hopeless and could easily surprise.

9/ Amazing Peace (3f Declaration of War (USA) x Amazing Beauty, by Galileo) – Two wins from seven starts and last start winner at Newcastle over 2350m, although untested in Black Type company.

Half-sister to Group II winner Mongolian Falcon, who only won up to 1400m, but dam won up to 2200m and Amazing Peace is bred on the exact same cross as Victoria Derby winner Warning, and is by the same sire as Melbounre Cup winner Vow and Declare, so obviously has pedigree on her side.

10 Never Listen (3f Trusting x Rose o’War by Danehill) – Two wins from nine starts and last start winner at Scone over 2200m, although untested in Black Type company.

Sire has had just one stakes-winner from 50 winners, but dam was second in the VRC Oaks and her dam Savana City won the ATC Australian Oaks, so she has some pedigree there, although this will be a massive jump in class.

11 Song Brocade (3f Zoffany (IRE) x Peony Fairy, by Mr Greeley)  One win at 1500m from 10 starts and last start ninth in the Wakeful.

Nothing in the pedigree suggests improvement is imminent.

12 Ocean Miss (NZ) (3f Ocean Park x Bound to Impress, by Galileo) – Three starts for a maiden win and then fourth in the Oaks Trial (1800m) and fourth in the Ethereal.

By Cox Plate winner Ocean Park, who is having a hot run at present and dam is by world renowned staying sire Galileo, a huge plus. Half-sister to a stakes-winner at 1600m and her grand-dam Honor Bound was a Group I winner at a mile. This race might be a bridge too far at this stage, but am thinking this is a nice filly going forward.

13 Apicius (3f Redoute’s Choice x Vanilla Princess, by Lonhro ) – One win at 1600m  from six starts , but finished a bad last in the Wakeful.

By a champion sire that gets classic horses and dam is a daughter of Champion 3YO filly Princess Coup, who won the New Zealand Oaks. Has a lovely pedigree, but tough to see her coming back from disastrous run in the Wakeful.

14 Stick ‘Em Up (3f Dundeel x Shoot Fer Love, by Ferocity) – One win at 2000m from five starts, untested in Black Type company.

By the hot young classic sire Dundeel and is closely related to Champion 3YO stayer and Australian Derby winner Shoot Out, who is by Dundeel’s sire High Chaparral (IRE). Facing a big class rise, but pedigree gives optimism and good trainer and good gate give her some sort of show.

15/ Victory Approach (3f Dawn Approach (IRE) x Venetian Lady, by Woodman (USA) – Maiden with just three starts most recent a second at Avoca over 1860m.

By a high class miler that is a grand-son of Galileo and comes from a big European family packed with top class stakes-winners, many of them over staying trips. Pedigree is no knock, but form suggests she will struggle.


Selections

1/ Vegas Jewel
2/ Miami Bound
3/ Moonlight Maid

Roughie -  Silent Sovereign