Here's a look at the speed map, stats, market, value and an investment strategy for the Taree Cup on Sunday.
Stacks Law Firm Taree Cup Showcase (2000m).
The Map.
|
ADMIRAL JELLO |
EGYPTIAN RULER |
MALLEABLE |
WHO IS GAME |
GOLD AMBITION |
|
GLITRA |
THE GETAWAY |
SOFIN |
MR MCBAT |
PACKEN |
|
COLLABORATION |
PIRATE BEN |
|
|
|
|
|
OLYMPIC ACADEMY |
|
|
|
With Glitra and Pirate Ben both pushing forward from double-figure barriers there is a high probability this year's cup will be run at a genuine tempo giving all runners their chance.
The Stats
Barriers 2,11,13 and 14 have the best winning strike rates over the journey at Taree with the three most profitable barriers 10,11 and 13 so the stats tell us not to be concerned about wide barriers.
Favourites over the 2000m trip perform substantially better than favourites across all distances at the Mid-North Coast track with a winning strike rate of 42 per cent and a profit on turnover of 12.6 per cent compared to the overall performance of favourites at Taree of 30.1 cent returning a loss on turnover of 13.1 per cent.
The Market and Value
The Kris Lees stable holds all the aces heading into Sunday's feature with the favourite Admiral Jello and the 2016 Taree Cup winner Olympic Academy.
Admiral Jello has his hoof right on the till third-up after two excellent performances at Randwick finishing fourth to Pelethronius resuming at Randwick before finishing second to the promising Steyne at the same track last time out.
The 2000m is perfect for Admiral Jello third-up and the $2.50 available in early markets looks value.
Olympic Academy won the 2016 Cup launching from barrier two and will need some luck from barrier 15 on Sunday but the market looks to have over-reacted to the wide gate with the $10 widely available in early betting looking over the odds.
Sofin is proven at the journey and is ready for the step up in distance at her fourth run back from a spell and represents a touch of value.
Gold Ambition finished right behind Admiral Jello in the Steyne race but the step up to 2000m is substantially in Admiral's Jello's favour.
Mr McBat goes to 2000m for the first time and looks under the odds.
Number |
Horse |
Greg's Assessed Odds |
||
2 |
Admiral Jello |
$2.50 |
$2.40 |
$2.20 |
3 |
Gold Ambition |
$5.00 |
$5.00 |
$9.00 |
9 |
Sofin |
$7.50 |
$7.00 |
$6.50 |
1 |
Mr McBat |
$9 |
$9.00 |
$14.00 |
6 |
Olympic Academy |
$10 |
$9.50 |
$6.50 |
Market Percentage |
|
|
|
95.74 |
The Strategy
The race sets up perfectly for Admiral Jello and at $2.50 is at backable odds for mine and is the only win bet in the race but playing the quinellas adding the stablemate Olympic Academy and Sofin for some additional value.