We found a couple at good odds last Wednesday and while this week I couldn't find one at double-figure odds, I probably head into the meeting with a higher degree of confidence.
FOUR CARAT (Canterbury Race 3 No 1)
A wise man once told me don't be frightened to back out-of-form horses with big weights when they drop drastically in grade. Four Carat fits that bill on Wednesday when the stayer looks to return to the winner's circle in a benchmark 75 contest over 2700m. Last prep Four Carat was in sparkling form, placing twice behind the smart Antonio Giuseppe in Sydney before venturing south and placing in the 2800m contest on Melbourne Cup day then producing a respectable fourth to Qewy in the Sandown Cup and another solid third to Boom Time. This prep he's struggled to get involved, finishing at least seven lengths from the winner in four runs, all of which have been in races significantly deeper in quality than the race he contests on Wednesday. His last run, when fourth behind Auvray and Sayed, was clearly his best this prep and he's suited out to this trip. He can bounce back against this average lot.
BET: WIN
ODDS $5 @ Sportsbet, Luxbet, William Hill, Unibet
NOTIO (Canterbury Race 5 No 10)
Notio bumped into the progressive Chris Waller-trained galloper Up 'N' Rolling last start but that form reads well for the Hawkes Racing-trained galloper's upcoming assignment on Wednesday. From a wide gate Notio went forward and overdid it up outside the lead before being left behind in the straight by Up 'N' Rolling. He would never have beaten the winner but I think the 3-1/4 length margin between the two was exaggerated because of Notio's over enthusiasm during the early and middle stages of the race. This time the son of Duporth draws barrier 3 and there's natural leaders – Virgillio and Fortensky – drawn the two widest gates, and this should allow Notio to get cover early and settle. Provided that's how it plays out, he'll hit the line harder and prove hard to stop in an easier race than he contested last time.
BET: WIN
ODDS $5.50 @ CrownBet, Bet365, William Hill, Palmerbet
MALAHAT (Canterbury Race 6 No 11)
Not big odds but Malahat will take plenty of holding out if he runs up to his first-up performance. Dragged back from his wide gate, Malahat settled at the tail of the field before unleashing a strong finishing effort to get within a neck of Golden Shoes and Ebanos in a benchmark 77 here over 1100m two weeks ago. This time the three-year-old has drawn ideally in barrier 1 and Hugh Bowman jumps into the saddle. Expect him to race much closer to the speed from this gate, remembering he led a 1200m race here last prep when he beat his highly-touted stablemate Kementari by 2-1/4 lengths. He's stakes class this Godolphin galloper and with clear running, he's definitely the horse to beat.
BET: WIN
ODDS $2.40 @ Bet365
MISSILE CODA (Canterbury Race 7 No 1)
Top trainer Peter Snowden isn't the type to throw accolades at his horses willy-nilly so when he says one has the potential to be stakes class I take note and that's what he said about this mare when she trounced her opposition at this track last start. Ridden closer to the speed, Missile Coda toyed with her opponents, winning by 4-1/4 lengths and the runner-up Jemadar franked the performance when finishing a luckless second behind the handy Heartlings at Warwick Farm last week. Jemadar had no excuses when finishing behind Missile Coda which further enhances the performance. Like Malahat, Missile Coda is no flash odds but a repeat of her last run will make her extremely hard to toss in what is a decent race.
BET: WIN
ODDS $2.40 @ Sportsbet, CrownBet, Bet365, Unibet
