The speedmap is the key to our best bet at Tamworth on Tuesday whilst it is hard to justify the early betting order in the benchmark 62 handicap.
The Phillip Atkins-trained Musical Query's winning form looks set to continue in the TAB.Com.Au Tamworth Rush (1000m) with the speedmap in her favour.
Musical Query has won four races in her seven career starts to date finishing in the placings in her three remaining runs and will be chasing a hat trick of wins on Tuesday after successive wins at Taree and Muswellbrook.
Here's how the speedmap shapes up.
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LEADER |
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GENDEBIEN |
SO YOU KNOW |
SAMMI JAIN |
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MUSICAL QUERY |
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ANOTHER WHISKEY |
POLSKIE PRINCE |
SAN SABARTO |
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MOSSMAN'S GOLD |
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Musical Query clearly has the superior early speed – close to two-length quicker than her rivals so will find the front comfortably and will be able to cruise along at a speed well within her limits.
If the analysis proves correct and the mare maintains her form seven runs into a preparation, Musical Query will simply be too quick for her rivals over the 1000m journey and is the day's best bet.
Early betting markets for the Goodwin Kenny Benchmark 62 Handicap (1400m) have the Bob Milligan-trained Magic Arli a $3.50 favourite ahead of Maybe Even You from the Shane Edmonds stable at $3.70.
Magic Arli has been made favourite on the back of a close second at Taree last time out but if we go back two runs we find that Magic Arli clashed with Maybe Even You in a Highway Handicap at Randwick and an analysis of that race suggests the bookies assessment is questionable.
Maybe Even You finished fourth and Magic Arli fifth with over a length separating the pair at the finish.
Maybe Even You carried 53.5kg and goes up 4.5kg on Tuesday whilst Magic Arli carried 51.5kg at Randwick and will carry an extra 7kg – that's a 2.5kg weight advantage for Maybe Even You for defeating Magic Arli comfortably.
The Randwick race was run in soft conditions which would have favoured Magic Arli with both her career wins coming on soft ground but is a six-start maiden on good ground.
The reverse applies for Maybe Even You that is yet to place in five starts on soft ground with both her wins coming on good tracks.
Taking a line through the Randwick run and a good (4) track posted for Tamworth on Tuesday it is hard to see why the market position shouldn't be reversed which makes Maybe Even You the value bet of the day.
