The Group I ATC Australian Oaks (2400m) on Saturday at Randwick has attracted an interesting field with all the key runners stepping out to the classic distance for the first time so we thought a look at pedigree might bring some insight into their prospects.
1/ Probabeel (NZ) (3f Savabeel x Far Fetched by Pins)
Top class filly by a champion sire in Savabeel that has left his share of classic winners including New Zealand Oaks winner Savvy Coup, who is from the same family as Probabeel.
Her dam never won beyond 1200m and her grand-dam never won beyond 1400m, but the overall picture of her pedigree would suggest she’ll be more than competitive as class carries you a long way in these types of events, but she’s really too brilliant to be considered a true stayer.
2/ Shout the Bar (3f Not a Single Doubt x Drinks All Round, by O’Reilly)
Has gone far in her first preparation and I’m her biggest fan, but this will be a serious test. Her sire is better known for sprinter milers but has had a couple of classic fillies in Single Gaze and Qafila and her dam’s pedigree features two of the same sires as in the previous filly Probabeel in O’Reilly and Centaine, both versatile champion sires
Like Probabeel, I doubt 2400m is really her optimum trip, but they are only three once and she’s a filly with a fierce will to win.
3/ Nudge (3f Fastnet Rock x Julinsky Princess, by Stravinsky (USA)
Good run when third to the top two in G1 Vinery (2000m). Bred on the same cross as VRC Oaks winner Mosheen, who is one of multiple classic winners sired by Fastnet Rock.
Half-sister to dual Group I winning miler Julinsky Prince and her stakes-winning dam Julinsky Princess was also a miler, however her dam is a grand-daughter of Epsom and Irish Oaks winner Juliette Marny so there is plenty of good tough European staying blood on her page to suggest she will be finding the line again.
4 Colette (3f Hallowed Crown x Libretto (IRE), by Singspiel
Burst into contention with easy win in G3 Adrian Knox (2000m). From the first crop of Randwick Guineas winner Hallowed Crown, who does come from the family of champion sire Zabeel and is by a Kentucky Derby winner in Street Sense.
Half-sister to juvenile stakes-winner Metastasio, but her other winning siblings have won over a lot further and this European female family bristles with staying stakes-winners, so she’s got the goods in terms of pedigree.
5/ Game of Thorns (3f Animal Kingdom (USA) x Only Roses, by Redoute’s Choice)
Fifth in the G1 Vinery and by the same sire as last year’s Australian Derby winner Angel of Truth.
Dam won over 1200m and is a half-sister to a couple of very smart Group III winning sprinter milers in The Inevitable and Blahnik. Nice pedigree, but not one that screams Oaks.
6/ Contrition (NZ) (3f Tavistock x Repenting, by Ekraar (USA)
Victorian visitor that was seventh in the G1 Vinery and has two wins from six starts. Her sire Tavistock has had multiple Derby winners, but yet to get an Oaks winner.
She’s bred to run the trip right out as her dam won at 2100m and is a full sister to Champion NZ Stayer and four time Group I winner Shez Sinsational, who won an Auckland Cup at 3200m.
7/ Toffee Tongue (NZ) (3f Tavistock x Bagalollies, by Zabeel
Blue blood maiden that is busting to win a race and gets her shot here after strong finishing second in G3 Adrian Knox.
Full sister to Champion HK Stayer Werther, Group III winning stayer Gobstopper and Milseain, who was third in the G1 NZ Oaks. Champion trainer and jockey and good gate, so could easily cast off maiden status with Oaks win.
8/ Dorothy of Oz (3f Redoute’s Choice x Princess Coup, by Encosta de Lago)
Two wins from nine starts and tenth in G3 Adrian Knox when led from a wide gate and compounded.
Full sister to Champion HK Griffin Thewizardofoz, by champion sire Redoute’s Choice from Champion 3YO Filly Princess Coup (who won a New Zealand Oaks), but sadly Dorothy is no champion.
9/ Quintessa (3f Pierro x Sense of Hite, by Street Sense (USA)
Another maiden that has been very consistent and got to the front too early in G3 Adrian Knox before being run down to finish third.
Sire Pierro is a proven classic source with Derby and Oaks winners. Dam was a stakes-placed sprinter, but grand-dam won up to 1800m and further back it’s the family of a pretty good stayer in Etymology, who was placed in Victoria and South Australian Derbies. She has some great stallions in her pedigree such as Sunday Silence, Street Cry and Danehill so lacks for nothing genetically in terms of class.
10/ Aspect Ratio (3f Declaration of War (USA) x Poste Restante, by Postponed (USA)
One win from 10 starts and has mixed her form and distant fourth in the G2 Phar Lap Stakes (1500m) followed by tenth in the G1 Vinery.
Absolutely bred to run the trip being by renowned sire of stayers Declaration of War (think Vow and Declare, Warning) from a Group III placed stayer up to 2400m that was fourth in a New Zealand Oaks. Great trainer of fillies John Sargent will have her ready to fire, so no surprise to see a better run from her.
11 Strange Charm (3f Casino Prince x Agnesar, by Agnes World (USA)
One win from 10 starts and 11th in G1 Vinery not encouraging.
Dam won over 1200m and her full brother never won beyond 1100 and while her sire Casino Prince did sire an SA Derby winner in Escado, we would not call him a sire of stayers. Hope for stamina comes further back as her Kiwi bred grand-dam is a sister to the dam of Caulfield Cup winner Mongolian Khan and Wellington Cup winner Young Centaur.
12/ Stick ‘Em Up (Dundeel x Shoot fer Love, by Ferocity)
The only runner that contested the VRC Oaks back in the spring in which she finished a respectable eighth of 14. Form since fair in easier grade and last start fifth in G3 Adrian Knox.
By outstanding sire Dundeel and is closely related to Champion 3YO stayer and Australian Derby winner Shoot Out, who is by Dundeel’s sire High Chaparral (IRE). Sire has never had a female stakes-winner and tough to see Stick ‘Em Up changing that in Oaks, but she’ll run the trip better than a lot of them.
13/ Satin Rain (3f Wandjina x Slippery Satin, by Benicio)
Two wins from 13 starts and seventh in G3 Adrian Knox.
By a sprinting bred sire in Wandjina, that never raced beyond 1600m although dam did win up to 1800m and she’s by Victoria Derby winner Benico from a daughter of Australian Derby winner Dr Grace. Black Type performers in the family have generally fared best up to a mile and include G1 Railway Stakes-winner Great Shot.
14/ Cosmic Haze (3f Deep Field x Flying First Class, by Flying Spur)
One win from nine starts and was eighth in the G3 Adrian Knox.
Dam won over 1600m and next two dams are by O’Reilly and Centaine, who also appear in the pedigrees of the top two contenders Probabeel and Shout the Bar. This Kiwi family has produced a Derby winner in Brambles, but he was by Savabeel and this filly is by Deep Field, a horse that could not go a stride past 1200m.
