Greg Polson previews Coffs Harbour Monday August 28

Greg Polson - Monday August 28

Knowledge is everything on the racetrack and here's a fact punters need to know about Coffs Harbour before they launch into a favourite at the track on Monday.

Coffs Harbour in recent years has been a graveyard for favourite punters with just 23 percent of favourites winning compared to the national average of 33 percent.

There are reasons for the poor performance of favourites, Coffs Harbour is a nightmare for punters on heavy tracks with the first horse to get to the outside fence often getting the money – with recent restoration work on the track hopefully this might change but the breakdown of favourites performance year on year doesn't suggest that is happening at this stage.

Year

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Winning Strike Rate %

26

22

24

23

19


Although the figures vary when broken down by distance each journey is below the average.

Distance

800m

1000m

1200m

1300m

1400m

1600m

Winning Strike Rate %

27.1

30

15.5

17.2

24

15.8


Although punters seem to get it wrong at Coffs Harbour with the top pick, the statistics start to improve with the second favourite winning above average to bring the top two in the market up to 43.9 percent with the top three favourites a more respectable 57 percent.

What do we make of these figures for racing at Coffs Harbour on Monday?

Like all the statistics I provide in these articles, they are a measure of performance and profitability over time and all seven favourites could come out and win on Monday so I am not trying to steer punters away from the favourites.

I am just providing some knowledge for punters meaning they might have a closer look at the investments they intend to make at Coffs Harbour.

The best of the favourites at Coffs Harbour on Monday look to be the Mick O'Neill-trained D'Last Za in the Top 50 Club Maiden Handicap (800m) and the Stirling Osland-trained First Family who will be fitter second-up in the Carlton Mid 3YO Maiden Handicap (1200m) with.

Conversely, the former Gerald Ryan-trained Escapado having his first run for Luke A Thomas and Central Witness from the Daniel Want yard look risky favourites.

Advertisment
More Reading...
El Vencedor wins G3 Balmerino Stakes
El Vencedor is making a habit of picking up major victories at Ellerslie, adding the Gr.3 Balmerino Stakes (2000m) to his burgeoning record at Tuesday’s Melbourne Cup Day meeting.
Coolmore Set Justify Fee for 2025
Coolmore have announced the US fee for Justify in 2025 with the undefeated Triple Crown winner priced at $US250,000 to head  their roster of 16 stallions at Ashford Stud in Kentucky.
Cup Day Stakes-Winner for Headwater
With a plethora of racing all over Australia on Cup Day there were opportunities aplenty and Vinery Stud’s value sire Headwater made his mark with a new stakes-winner on Perth at Ascot where three year-old filly London’s Image captured the Listed WATC Burgess Queen Stakes (1400m).
Knights Choice a True Underdog Story
Punters were left stunned when the Queenslander Knight's Choice and Japanese visitor Warp Speed (JPN) emerged from the pack to fight out a dramatic finish to the $8,560,000 Group 1 Lexus Melbourne Cup (3200m) at Flemington.
Melbourne Cup Pedigree Analysis - Do It Yourself
Breednet has produced a great page with click through to five generation pedigrees for all the Melbourne Cup runners, so for amateur pedigree buffs looking to have a Cup flutter based pedigree here’s your chance  to DIY it!
Melbourne Cup Winner for Extreme Choice – Rare Slice of History
This year’s $8.5million Group I VRC Melbourne Cup (3200m) produced a genuinely amazing fairytale result for the connections of five year-old Extreme Choice gelding Knight’s Choice, but part of that fairytale is his sire Extreme Choice, who has carved out something seriously special as being only the second sire in history to produce the winner of a Golden Slipper and a Melbourne Cup.
$6million Frankel Mare Tops Fasig -Tipton November Sale
The Fasig-Tipton November Sale, billed as the World’s Premier Breeding Stock Event, was held Monday at the company’s Newtown Paddocks in Lexington, Kentucky. Twenty-five offerings sold for $1,000,000 or more, led by a trio of Grade/Group 1 winners with international appeal.
Sires With Winners - Monday November 4
Here is the full list of 21 stallions which had winners throughout Australasia today with winners and result details.
Magic Nick Strikes Again – Fastnet Rock x Galileo
The Fastnet Rock x Galileo nick has been on fire in Melbourne this spring producing Cox Plate winner Via Sistina (IRE) and leading Melbourne Cup contender Buckaroo (GB) and it struck again overnight in the UK with a brand new stakes-winner in Military Academy, who captured the Listed Floodlit Stakes (1m4f) at Kempton.
Darley Announce European Fees 2025
Darley have announced fees on their roster off 22 sires standing in the UK, Ireland and France with Dubawi heading the list at a fee of £350,000 for the third year in a row.