2500 metres is a long way and the gruelling last furlong frequently undoes some
of the better horses, leaving the grinders to fight out the finish so let’s
take a look at the pedigrees in the search for roughies to challenge the
favourite.1/ Thinkin ‘ Big (3c High Chaparral (IRE) x Nothin’ Leica Cat, by Tale of the Cat (USA) – Impressive last start winner of the Group III MRC Caulfield Classic after a good third in the Group I ATC Spring Champion Stakes, so form has him a deserving favourite.
By outstanding classic sire in High Chaparral, who had both the Derby and Cup winner last year in Ace High and Rekindling. His dam Nothin’ Leica Cat was second in the Queensland Oaks and fourth in the Australian Oaks and her dam is by Victoria Derby winner and Melbourne Cup runner-up Nothin’ Leica Dane. Pedigree and form indicate he’s the horse to beat.
2/ Aramayo (3c Poet’s Voice (GB) x Peruvian, by Diktat) – Won the Group III Newcastle Spring Stakes (1600m) and placed in Group I ATC Spring Champion and Group II MVRC Moonee Valley Vase so is in good form in the right races.
By a versatile sire son of champion sire Dubawi in Poet’s Voice, whose best horse Poets Word is a Group I winner to 2400 metres.
Aramayo is a half-brother
to Australian Derby runner-up Tupac Amaru and on the dam side, he’s bred to
stay all day as mum is a half-sister to champion stayer In The Wings.
3/ Extra Brut (3c Domesday x Dom Perion, by Redoute’s Choice) – Won three in a
row including Listed VRC UCI Stakes (1800m) at Flemington before last start
sixth to Thinkin’ Big in Caulfield Classic.
Domesday has already sired two Derby winners in Ruthven and Arcadia Dream and his dam Dom Perion is a 1500 metre winner by champion sire Redoute’s Choice, who is no stranger to classic success. There is stout European staying blood further back in the pedigree, so Extra Brut could easily improve coming back to Flemington although the wide barrier may not help the cause.
4/ Stars of Carrum (3c Fiorente (IRE) x Signoret, by Anabaa (USA) – Second in the Listed SAJC Hill Smith Stakes before a determined win in the Group II MVRC Moonee Valley Vase (2040m), breaking his maiden in style!
By Melbourne Cup hero Fiorente and his dam Signoret won over 1900 metres and
her next two dams are by Melbourne Cup winners Jeune (GB) and At Talaq (USA),
that screams stayer to me! He should run the 2500 metres and then some!
5/ Home Ground (3g High Chaparral (IRE) x First Look, by Danehill Dancer (IRE) – Fifth in the Group I BRC JJ Atkins Stakes to The Autumn Sun at two and has been steadily improving this spring with last start win in Listed Geelong Classic (2200m).
Another by renowned classic sire High Chaparral and is from a speedy daughter of versatile sire Danehill Dancer in First Look, who is a sister to juvenile stakes-winner Danehill Smile. The female family is mostly speed, but all form evidence would suggest the sire has come out on top in this mating and trainer John Sargent has prepared him like a genuine stayer so expect a good tough run despite the gate.
6/ Mickey Blue Eyes (3c Medaglia D’Oro (USA) x Carolina Belle, by Zabeel) – Won
Listed ATC Dulcify Quality (1600m) and then fifth in Spring Champion and Moonee
Valley Vase, so is thereabouts in the right races.
By an outstanding and versatile sire in Medaglia D’Oro and dam won up to 2200 metres and is by the mighty staying influence Zabeel. There’s a nice mix of speed and stamina in the pedigree suggesting Mickey is going to be a nice horse for the future whatever happens here.
7/ Savoie (3c Ilovethiscity x Larissar, by Street Cry (IRE) – Two time winner and third in the Listed VRC UCI Stakes and second in the Moonee Valley Vase, Savoie is Mr Consistency and does not know how to run a bad race.
His sire Ilovethiscity will also have a leading chance in the VRC Oaks in El Dorado Dreaming and that’s probably no coincidence as while Ilovethiscity only won up to the 1600 metres of the Group I ATC Randwick Guineas, he comes from one of the all time great New Zealand families as his grand-dam is a half-sister to AJC Oaks winner Gay Poss, whose descendants include Classic winners Grosvenor, National Gallery, Mahaya, Tavago and even the great champion Lonhro.
Savoie is from a minor winning daughter of super sire Street Cry and further back in the family is AJC Derby winner Battle Sign, so if he’s still there at the furlong despite his awful wide gate I won’t be susprised.
8/ Visao (3c High Chaparral (IRE) x Villa Moura, by Encosta de Lago) – Two wins up to 1800m from six starts and was last start fourth in the Caulfield Classic.
Yet another by the great High Chaparral. Dam won over 1150 metres and next two dams are by Danehill and Bletchingly. Visao is from the famed Denise’s Joy family, but his dam is from the Christmas Spirit branch, which is better known for it’s sprinter milers, so I’m just not seeing Visao as a horse that’s going to relish 2500 metres.
9/ Seberate (3c Sebring x Recooperate, by General Nediym) – Third in Listed SAJC Hill Smith Stakes (1800m), but well back in the Geelong Classic.
By a versatile sire in Sebring that has had his share of classic success, but dam only won up to 1250 metres and is a half-sister to brilliant sprinter Nicconi and five time Group I winner Niconero, who found his outer limit at 2000 metres. Has only one win in 12 starts, so while I wouldn’t be shocked to see him place on pedigree, I hardly want to tip him.
10/ Chapada (3g Bullet Train (GB) x Diamantina Dior, by Oasis Dream) – Good second in the Caulfield Classic at just his fourth start after easy maiden win at Wangaratta over 1590 m.
By Frankel’s less successful three-quarter brother Bullet Train, who is by one of the world’s great staying sires Sadler’s Wells. Chapada might have been bred at John North’s Bowness Stud near Young in country NSW, but he has a pedigree that wouldn’t be out of place in an Epsom Derby. His dam is a grand-daughter of Irish stakes-winner Diamond Seal, who has left an impressive dynasty of stakes-winning stayers including Champion 3YO Capri, winner of an Irish Derby and English St Leger as well as Bauer, who was second in a Melbourne Cup. Pedigree puts him in the finish and with JMac to ride he could easily give astute trainer Mike Moroney another shot at a race he’s won twice before with Second Coming and Monaco Consul.
11/ Sikorsky (3c Pierro x Musidora, by Rock of Gibraltar (IRE) – Third in the Caulfield Classic and second in the UCI Stakes, Sikorsky has one win at 1600m and three placings from just six starts.
Full brother to Golden Slipper place-getter and brilliant sprinter Tulip, but has obviously inherited more of the staying aptitude we saw from the progeny of Pierro last season when he sired VRC Oaks winner Pinot and AJC Australian Derby winner Levendi. His dam Musidora was a G3 winner up to 1400 metres and is also the dam of 2000 metre G3 winner Sacred Eye from a high class female family that has given us more good horses than you can count including I Am a Star, who will be favourite in the Empire Rose Stakes. Whatever happens Saturday, Sikorsky looms as a big improver in the autumn.
12/ Farooq (3c Frankel x Rostova, by Testa Rossa) – Talented and good looking colt, albeit has appeared to lack commitment to the cause until his last start when he tried very hard and was only narrowly beaten in the Geelong Classic to Home Ground.
His dam Rostova was a G1 winning sprinter and the female family is primarily about speed, although Testa Rossa is a sire that can throw up a stayer, so if Farooq tries as hard as he did last start and gets the good run from gate two he might make it interesting for the top picks.
13/ Louie the Legend (3c Masterprint x Rusty Bugles, by Toy Pindarri) – Fourth in the UCI Stakes, but down the track in Geelong Classic and has won only one race at 1400m from eight starts.
Sire is an unraced son of Rubiton and dam did win six races up to 1400m, but boasts a pedigree completely barren of any Black Type in five removes, so I’m inclined to think Louie the Legend will not be improving the family fortunes on Saturday.
14/ Savvy Oak (NZ) (3c Savabeel x Fair Oak, by High Chaparral (IRE) – Won debut at Echuca over 1200m in late August and five runs since not hopeless with last start fourth in the Moonee Valley Vase.
Can’t believe this is the first Kiwi bred in the field, what’s going on there? They’ve gone missing this year. Savvy Oak bred to get the trip being by champion sire Savabeel from G3 winning daughter of High Chaparral whose family features Group I staying stars such as Field Dancer and Just a Dancer. I think he’s a Derby horse, but probably next year.
15/ Tolemac (3g Camelot (IRE) x Zermatt, by Shaft) – Just three starts for debut 1600m win at Moe then good second in Derby Trial at Flemington and fourth in the Geelong Classic.
By the world’s most exciting young sire of stayers and as you’ve probably noticed his name is Camelot backwards. His dam was a non winner, but is a daughter of former very good G3 winner Zanna, who won up to 2050m and is by Pentire (GB), who gave us Melbourne Cup winner Prince of Penzance. There’s a lot to like about the pedigree and the horse, so watch out for him in Derbies next year if this one comes too soon for an inexperienced 3YO.
16/ Grinzinger Star (NZ) (3g Reliable Man (IRE) x Miss Artistic, by Darci Brahma) – Third in the Geelong Classic at fifth start after 2200 m maiden win at Ballarat.
Another Kiwi bred to stay by Reliable Man, who had the runner-up Sully in this race last year. Dam won the New Zealand Oaks so pedigree ticks all the boxes and from a good draw with Damien Oliver to ride, he can be in the finish.
Emergency 17/ Alessandro (3c Fiorente (IRE) x Galivant (IRE), by Galileo) – Three starts for two wins, albeit in lesser grade at 1400 and 2025m, but completely untested against better class.
Second runner in the race by the sire and has a serious stayers pedigree as his dam is a three-quarter-sister by Galileo to Sydney Cup winner The Offer from a European family packed with stakes-winning stayers. He will run this trip with his eyes closed, but the question mark is class… pedigree says he has it!
Emergency 18 / Vow and Declare (3g Declaration of War (USA) x Geblizt, by Testa Rossa)- Broke maiden at fourth start winning at Warrnambool over 2381m, but untried in better company.
By Declaration of War, a Group I winning son of War Front best suited at 1m. Half-brother to tough stakes-winning stayer Lycurgus and female family includes Group I winners Hauraki and Kidnapped, who won the South Australian Derby. He’s already won over further than every other runner in this race, so we know he can stay, the issue is if he can stay fast enough in this grade.
Selections
1/ Thinkin’ Big
2/ Chapada
3/ Stars of Carrum
4/ Savoie
Roughie Grinzinger Star
3/ Extra Brut (3c Domesday x Dom Perion, by Redoute’s Choice) – Won three in a
row including Listed VRC UCI Stakes (1800m) at Flemington before last start
sixth to Thinkin’ Big in Caulfield Classic.Domesday has already sired two Derby winners in Ruthven and Arcadia Dream and his dam Dom Perion is a 1500 metre winner by champion sire Redoute’s Choice, who is no stranger to classic success. There is stout European staying blood further back in the pedigree, so Extra Brut could easily improve coming back to Flemington although the wide barrier may not help the cause.
4/ Stars of Carrum (3c Fiorente (IRE) x Signoret, by Anabaa (USA) – Second in the Listed SAJC Hill Smith Stakes before a determined win in the Group II MVRC Moonee Valley Vase (2040m), breaking his maiden in style!
By Melbourne Cup hero Fiorente and his dam Signoret won over 1900 metres and
her next two dams are by Melbourne Cup winners Jeune (GB) and At Talaq (USA),
that screams stayer to me! He should run the 2500 metres and then some!5/ Home Ground (3g High Chaparral (IRE) x First Look, by Danehill Dancer (IRE) – Fifth in the Group I BRC JJ Atkins Stakes to The Autumn Sun at two and has been steadily improving this spring with last start win in Listed Geelong Classic (2200m).
Another by renowned classic sire High Chaparral and is from a speedy daughter of versatile sire Danehill Dancer in First Look, who is a sister to juvenile stakes-winner Danehill Smile. The female family is mostly speed, but all form evidence would suggest the sire has come out on top in this mating and trainer John Sargent has prepared him like a genuine stayer so expect a good tough run despite the gate.
6/ Mickey Blue Eyes (3c Medaglia D’Oro (USA) x Carolina Belle, by Zabeel) – Won
Listed ATC Dulcify Quality (1600m) and then fifth in Spring Champion and Moonee
Valley Vase, so is thereabouts in the right races.By an outstanding and versatile sire in Medaglia D’Oro and dam won up to 2200 metres and is by the mighty staying influence Zabeel. There’s a nice mix of speed and stamina in the pedigree suggesting Mickey is going to be a nice horse for the future whatever happens here.
7/ Savoie (3c Ilovethiscity x Larissar, by Street Cry (IRE) – Two time winner and third in the Listed VRC UCI Stakes and second in the Moonee Valley Vase, Savoie is Mr Consistency and does not know how to run a bad race.
His sire Ilovethiscity will also have a leading chance in the VRC Oaks in El Dorado Dreaming and that’s probably no coincidence as while Ilovethiscity only won up to the 1600 metres of the Group I ATC Randwick Guineas, he comes from one of the all time great New Zealand families as his grand-dam is a half-sister to AJC Oaks winner Gay Poss, whose descendants include Classic winners Grosvenor, National Gallery, Mahaya, Tavago and even the great champion Lonhro.
Savoie is from a minor winning daughter of super sire Street Cry and further back in the family is AJC Derby winner Battle Sign, so if he’s still there at the furlong despite his awful wide gate I won’t be susprised.
8/ Visao (3c High Chaparral (IRE) x Villa Moura, by Encosta de Lago) – Two wins up to 1800m from six starts and was last start fourth in the Caulfield Classic.
Yet another by the great High Chaparral. Dam won over 1150 metres and next two dams are by Danehill and Bletchingly. Visao is from the famed Denise’s Joy family, but his dam is from the Christmas Spirit branch, which is better known for it’s sprinter milers, so I’m just not seeing Visao as a horse that’s going to relish 2500 metres.
9/ Seberate (3c Sebring x Recooperate, by General Nediym) – Third in Listed SAJC Hill Smith Stakes (1800m), but well back in the Geelong Classic.
By a versatile sire in Sebring that has had his share of classic success, but dam only won up to 1250 metres and is a half-sister to brilliant sprinter Nicconi and five time Group I winner Niconero, who found his outer limit at 2000 metres. Has only one win in 12 starts, so while I wouldn’t be shocked to see him place on pedigree, I hardly want to tip him.
10/ Chapada (3g Bullet Train (GB) x Diamantina Dior, by Oasis Dream) – Good second in the Caulfield Classic at just his fourth start after easy maiden win at Wangaratta over 1590 m.
By Frankel’s less successful three-quarter brother Bullet Train, who is by one of the world’s great staying sires Sadler’s Wells. Chapada might have been bred at John North’s Bowness Stud near Young in country NSW, but he has a pedigree that wouldn’t be out of place in an Epsom Derby. His dam is a grand-daughter of Irish stakes-winner Diamond Seal, who has left an impressive dynasty of stakes-winning stayers including Champion 3YO Capri, winner of an Irish Derby and English St Leger as well as Bauer, who was second in a Melbourne Cup. Pedigree puts him in the finish and with JMac to ride he could easily give astute trainer Mike Moroney another shot at a race he’s won twice before with Second Coming and Monaco Consul.
11/ Sikorsky (3c Pierro x Musidora, by Rock of Gibraltar (IRE) – Third in the Caulfield Classic and second in the UCI Stakes, Sikorsky has one win at 1600m and three placings from just six starts.
Full brother to Golden Slipper place-getter and brilliant sprinter Tulip, but has obviously inherited more of the staying aptitude we saw from the progeny of Pierro last season when he sired VRC Oaks winner Pinot and AJC Australian Derby winner Levendi. His dam Musidora was a G3 winner up to 1400 metres and is also the dam of 2000 metre G3 winner Sacred Eye from a high class female family that has given us more good horses than you can count including I Am a Star, who will be favourite in the Empire Rose Stakes. Whatever happens Saturday, Sikorsky looms as a big improver in the autumn.
12/ Farooq (3c Frankel x Rostova, by Testa Rossa) – Talented and good looking colt, albeit has appeared to lack commitment to the cause until his last start when he tried very hard and was only narrowly beaten in the Geelong Classic to Home Ground.
His dam Rostova was a G1 winning sprinter and the female family is primarily about speed, although Testa Rossa is a sire that can throw up a stayer, so if Farooq tries as hard as he did last start and gets the good run from gate two he might make it interesting for the top picks.
13/ Louie the Legend (3c Masterprint x Rusty Bugles, by Toy Pindarri) – Fourth in the UCI Stakes, but down the track in Geelong Classic and has won only one race at 1400m from eight starts.
Sire is an unraced son of Rubiton and dam did win six races up to 1400m, but boasts a pedigree completely barren of any Black Type in five removes, so I’m inclined to think Louie the Legend will not be improving the family fortunes on Saturday.
14/ Savvy Oak (NZ) (3c Savabeel x Fair Oak, by High Chaparral (IRE) – Won debut at Echuca over 1200m in late August and five runs since not hopeless with last start fourth in the Moonee Valley Vase.
Can’t believe this is the first Kiwi bred in the field, what’s going on there? They’ve gone missing this year. Savvy Oak bred to get the trip being by champion sire Savabeel from G3 winning daughter of High Chaparral whose family features Group I staying stars such as Field Dancer and Just a Dancer. I think he’s a Derby horse, but probably next year.
15/ Tolemac (3g Camelot (IRE) x Zermatt, by Shaft) – Just three starts for debut 1600m win at Moe then good second in Derby Trial at Flemington and fourth in the Geelong Classic.
By the world’s most exciting young sire of stayers and as you’ve probably noticed his name is Camelot backwards. His dam was a non winner, but is a daughter of former very good G3 winner Zanna, who won up to 2050m and is by Pentire (GB), who gave us Melbourne Cup winner Prince of Penzance. There’s a lot to like about the pedigree and the horse, so watch out for him in Derbies next year if this one comes too soon for an inexperienced 3YO.
16/ Grinzinger Star (NZ) (3g Reliable Man (IRE) x Miss Artistic, by Darci Brahma) – Third in the Geelong Classic at fifth start after 2200 m maiden win at Ballarat.
Another Kiwi bred to stay by Reliable Man, who had the runner-up Sully in this race last year. Dam won the New Zealand Oaks so pedigree ticks all the boxes and from a good draw with Damien Oliver to ride, he can be in the finish.
Emergency 17/ Alessandro (3c Fiorente (IRE) x Galivant (IRE), by Galileo) – Three starts for two wins, albeit in lesser grade at 1400 and 2025m, but completely untested against better class.
Second runner in the race by the sire and has a serious stayers pedigree as his dam is a three-quarter-sister by Galileo to Sydney Cup winner The Offer from a European family packed with stakes-winning stayers. He will run this trip with his eyes closed, but the question mark is class… pedigree says he has it!
Emergency 18 / Vow and Declare (3g Declaration of War (USA) x Geblizt, by Testa Rossa)- Broke maiden at fourth start winning at Warrnambool over 2381m, but untried in better company.
By Declaration of War, a Group I winning son of War Front best suited at 1m. Half-brother to tough stakes-winning stayer Lycurgus and female family includes Group I winners Hauraki and Kidnapped, who won the South Australian Derby. He’s already won over further than every other runner in this race, so we know he can stay, the issue is if he can stay fast enough in this grade.
Selections
1/ Thinkin’ Big
2/ Chapada
3/ Stars of Carrum
4/ Savoie
Roughie Grinzinger Star
