The Group I VRC Victoria Derby at Flemington on Saturday is worth a whopping $2 million and the testing trip of 2500m means a lot of horses are not going to see it out strongly and this looks a competitive year with a Group I winner coming down from Sydney that has a picket fence next to his name and plenty of locals to take him on, so let’s see what the pedigrees have to say.
For anyone looking to do their own research click on the image above and go to our Derby pedigree page where you can call up a five generation pedigree on every runner.
1 - El Castello (c Castelvecchio x Word Game, by Fastnet Rock) – Undefeated this spring with four wins on the trot and each better than the last culminating in G1 ATC Spring Champion Stakes victory at 2000m, although barrier 18 a potential hurdle to overcome, but good tactical speed should assist.
From the first crop of Dundeel’s G1 winner Castelvecchio, who was a G1 winner at 2000m and second in a Cox Plate. Dam is a half-sister to G1 Victoria Derby winner Fiveandahalfstar with third dam Cross Words a full sister to G1 Sydney Cup winner Crossed Swords, so yes he is bred to get the trip.
2 - Red Aces (c Dundeel (NZ) x Cardiac, by Encosta de Lago) – Broke his maiden over 1800m at Flemington at two and won G2 Moonee Valley Vase (2040m) with tenacious effort.
Dundeel invariably has runners in this race every year although is yet to sire the winner, but Red Aces comes from a superior staying female family as his dam is a half-sister to VRC Oaks winner Arapaho Miss, the dam of another VRC Oaks winner in Miami Bound and De Little Engine, who won an Andrew Ransden Stakes at 3200m. Big tick on pedigree.
3 - Keeneland (NZ) (g Almanzor (FR) x Savabeel Star, by Savabeel) – Won Listed VRC Super Impose Stakes (1800m) beating Red Aces and a close third in G3 MRC Caulfield Classic (2000m).
By Almanzor (Fr), who sired Manzoice to win this race and from a daughter of champion sire Savabeel, who has also sired a winner of this race in Sangster. Dam won over 2200m, but further back there is plenty of speed in his European female family.
4 - Goldrush Guru (c American Pharoah (USA) x Glam Guru, by Medaglia D’Oro (USA) – Missed a placed only once in seven starts and comes in off dominant last start win in Listed SAJC Hill Smith Stakes (1800m) with Jamie Kah to ride and trainer Andrew Gluyas learned from one of the best in Leon Macdonald.
By US Triple Crown winner American Pharoah, sire of last year’s Victoria Derby winner Riff Rocket. His dam was second in G2 Wakeful Stakes at 2000m and is a half-sister to G3 winning stayer Gamblin’ Guru from the family of G1 Australian Derby winner and Champion 3YO Gold Guru and G2 winning stayer Gallant Guru. Purely on pedigree, he’s a big hope and is in great hands.
5 - Saint Emilion (c Snitzel x Kylikwong, by Red Ransom (USA)- Unraced at two and broke his maiden over 1600m at Goulburn at start three, then straight up in trip and class to win Listed Geelong Classic (2200m).
As good a stallion as he is, Snitzel has never sired a Derby or Oaks winner and in fact has only ever sired one SW over a distance longer than 2300m. That said, Saint Emilion’s dam Kylikwong was second in the VRC Oaks and produced a 2400m SW in Cantonese, who was by Redoute’s Choice, so she definitely had some stamina which is not typical of this female family, which is far more noted for brilliant sprinter milers such as Typhoon Tracy and Alligator Blood. If he wins, he will be a history maker for Snitzel!
6 – Kingofwallstreet (c Dundeel (NZ) x Our Girl Raquie, by Fastnet Rock) – Broke his maiden at third start winning G3 Caulfield Classic at 2000m in a thriller after a close second in Derby Preview at Flemington over 1800m.
Another colt by Dundeel although his female family is not geared to stamina with his third dam blue hen Shantha’s Choice, who has given us G1 winners Redoute’s Choice, Manhattan Rain and Platinum Scissors, who won a G1 Spring Champion and may have won a Victoria Derby if he had run it. A mile to 2000m is generally the outer limit for this fabulous family, although this guy has been trained for the task and the sheer class of this pedigree will take him a long way in this company.
7 - Politely Dun (g Dundeel (NZ) x Politeness, by Street Sense (USA)- Seven starts for one win at Ballarat over 2000m and was last start fourth in G3 Moonee Valley Vase (2040m).
Another runner for Dundeel and is from G1 Myer Classic (1600m) winner Politeness, who is by Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense. Stakes-winners in the immediate family are all sprinter miles including Group I winning 2YO’s On the Bubbles and Daumier, so not exactly a Derby pedigree on face value.
8 - King Of Thunder (NZ) (g Tivaci x Sheezababe, by Zabeel) – Maiden winner at Kembla over 1600m and close last start third in G2 Moonee Valley Vase (2040m).
By Tivaci, a sprinting son of Epsom Derby winner and legendary classic sire High Chaparral (Sire of Dundeel) and is from stakes-placed Zabeel stayer Sheezababe, a daughter of Sydney Cup winner Honor Babe. Has all the right elements in pedigree to be thinking Derby!
9 - Tenbury Wells (c Fastnet Rock x Dowager Queen (NZ), by Savabeel) – Winner at Kembla over 1600m and then 2000m before last start fifth in G3 Gloaming Stakes (1800m) won by El Castello and with nine starts has had more racing than every other runner.
By champion sire Fastnet Rock, who has sired both Derby and Oaks winners and his dam Dowager Queen is a SW to 1600m and was second in VRC Oaks. He’s tough and well seasoned, but class does look an issue.
10 – Peru (g Brazen Beau x Salamati (Ger), by Dubawi ) -Won over 1300m at two and was fourth in G2 VRC Sires Produce Stakes to Traffic Warden, but form this season not encouraging and was last start sixth in G2 Moonee Valley Vase.
He is from an imported German mare that has plenty of staying stakes-winners in her pedigree, but I just cannot see a speed sire like Brazen Beau producing a Derby winner.
11 - China Sea (g Fastnet Rock x Rippled (GB) by Dalakhani) – Maiden winner over 1400m at two and every subsequent start in Black Type company, most recently a close second in G3 Caulfield Classic splitting Kingofwallstreet and Keeneland. Trainer, jockey and barrier all give cause for optimism.
He’s a half-brother to G2 winner Greysful Glamour, who was second in VRC Oaks and Celestial Falls, who was third in a G2 BRC Roses. Dam won over 1600m and is by classic sire Dalakhani with next dam by Sadler’s Wells and there is plenty of quality Euro Group winners on the page. Bred to be here no question.
12 - Hot Too Go (c Too Darn Hot (GB) x Gogo Grace, by New Approach (IRE)- Still a maiden after seven starts, but has run second at past three starts most recently in Listed Geelong Classic (2200m).
From the first crop of Too Darn Hot (GB), who was a Champion European 2YO and 3YO up to a mile, but has a pedigree laden with stamina that would give the suggestion he could well sire stayers. Dam is by Epsom Derby winner New Approach and is a G3 winner to 1600m and grand-dam Starmon a SW at 2100m tracing all the way back to the Cotehele House branch of the legendary Eight Carat family, so pedigree puts him in the picture for a place.
13 - Scary (NZ) (c Shocking x Never Ever, by Reliable Man (GB) – Won a Sale maiden over 1732m and then third in Listed Super Impose Stakes (1800m) and fifth in G3 Caulfield Classic (2000m).
By Melbourne Cup winning sire Shocking, who has sired 11 SW’s at distances longer than 2300m including a New Zealand Oaks winner and this guy is from a dour old New Zealand female family, so he’s likely to be finding the line while plenty of the others are looking for a place to hide.
14 - Oxford Blue (g Fiorente (IRE) x Stockpin, by Pins – Won a Sale maiden over 1740m at second start and then good third in Geelong Classic.
By Melbourne Cup winning sire Fiorente, who has sired three SW’s at distances longer than 2300m and is from a proven Kiwi staying family that has produced two G1 Oaks winners in Australia in Provocative and El Patroness. Bred for the trip.
15 - West Indies (NZ) (g Fastnet Rock x Anchovy (IRE), by Galileo) – Won Kembla maiden over 1400m at second start and then fourth in G3 Caulfield Classic (2000m).
Bred on the all-conquering Fastnet Rock x Galileo nick that runs at 18% SW to runner with star performers Via Sistina (IRE) and Buckaroo (IRE) bred this way. His dam is a three-quarter sister-in-blood to Epsom Derby winner Ruler of the World with five time G1 winner Duke of Marmalade also on the page, so at this stage the pedigree for West Indies reads better than his form.
16 – Autumnheat (g Too Darn Hot (GB) x Autumn, by O’Reilly – Maiden after five starts and was third at Seymour over 1600m and then fifth in G2 Moonee Valley Vase (2040m).
Second runner for Too Darn Hot and is a half-brother to stakes-placed sprinter miler Arentee, but there is plenty of staying blood in the Kiwi female family that includes G1 Adelaide Cup winner The A Train so can see why they are having a throw at the stumps.
Tips
1/ El Castello
2/ King of Thunder
3/Red Aces
4/ Goldrush Guru
Roughie- China Sea
