Yankee Rose was a red hot favourite last year, but finished second last, so
while this year's favourite Aloisia does look head and shoulders above her
rivals, let's go through the rest with a fine tooth comb.1/ Aloisia (NZ) (3f Azamour (Fr) x Queen Boudicca, by Perfectly Ready) – The only Group I winner in the field and last start thrashed the colts in the Group II MVRC Vase over 2040m.
From the lone crop of European Classic type sire, whose best horse won the Dubai Sheema Classic over 2400m. Dam won one race at 1100m, but she is from a daughter of Victoria Derby winner Grosvenor from a US family, whose best member is Bet Twice, who won the Group I Belmont Stakes at 2400m at three. No real knock on pedigree to run the trip.
2/ Luvuluva (NZ) (3f Mastercraftsman x Wansesingyee, by Galileo) – Looked a stayer on Saturday in the Group II VRC Wakeful, hitting the line hard at end of 2000m to win.
Her sire was more of a miler to 2000m horse, but has thrown a number of high
class stayers and her dam is by the world's best sire Galileo. Her family is
Australian further down the page and littered with sprinting stakes-winners,
but am inclined to think what is up close in her pedigree is more relevant.3/ Bring Me Roses (3f High Chaparral (IRE) x Freckled Face, by Polish Patriot (GB) – Won the Group II VRC Edward Manifold Stakes (1600m) like a superstar, then failed as favourite in the Wakeful Stakes.
By an outstanding classic sire, but her dam was a very fast filly that never won beyond 1200 metres and of her eight winning siblings none have won beyond 1600m. Coming off Saturday's run it's hard to see her as a stayer.
4/ Pinot (3f Pierro x Dizelle, by Zabeel) – Front running stayer that has reeled off impressive wins at 1800 m and last start in the Group III MRC Ethereal Stakes (2000m).
We talked about Pierro as a possible classic sire in the Derby Preview and his
contender there Pissaro ran fourth, so am optimistic this filly can go even
better. Her dam won the Australian Oaks and is a sister to HK Horse of the Year
and Champion Stayer Vengeance of Rain, while her half-sister Dizlago was also
no slouch as a stakes-winner up to 2000m. She also has a double cross of Zabeel
4 x 2, which might prove useful when the going gets tough, although if she
fades at the furlong the narks will say, 'She's by a Golden Slipper winner and
her grand-dam won the Blue Diamond, what did you expect'…. 5/ Rimraam (NZ) (3f Commands x Swansea (IRE), by Singspiel) – Stakes-placed last two runs at 2000m, so is fit and seasoned for this assignment.
By a sire best known for sprinter milers, but given the right mare can get a stayer such as his Oaks winner Purple. Rimraam is from such a mare in Swansea, who won at 2400 metres and her next two dams are by Naswhan (Epsom Derby) and Secretariat (legend!) Form and pedigree suggest she's working up to something.
6/ Hiyaam (NZ) 3f (High Chaparral (IRE) x Mazarine, by Zabeel) – Second, third and fourth at her last three starts in stakes company and her turn to win one has to come.
As far as Oaks pedigrees go this is gold! It doesn't get any better. High Chaparral is an outstanding classic sire and her unraced dam by Zabeel is a sister to Australian Oaks winner Shower of Roses from the legendary Eight Carat family which also produced Astoria to finish third in the Derby on Saturday. The only negative is that her dam (Mazarine) has been a disaster to date producing just two winners from ten named foals, so Hiyaam is the hope of the side to restore some glory to this branch of the family.
Sire is on a roll giving us the Derby winner (Ace High) and Cup winner (Rekindling), can he add the Oaks?
7/ Lucky Louie (3f Pluck (USA) x La Bella Luisa, by Clang) – Maiden after nine starts and has been following them around in last two runs over 2000m in stakes company.
Pedigree uninspiring on the whole with no stakes-winners in the first five dams, but third and fourth dams are by staying sires Sir Tristram (IRE) and Hermes (GB) if you were really looking for a positive.
8/ Reliable Dame (NZ) – (3f Reliable Man (GB) x Rosey Dane, by Woodman (USA) – Comes through a different formline having finished fourth in the Geelong Classic 2200m and won her maiden at 1600m.
By the sire of the Derby runner-up Sully which is a plus, although female family is all Australian and better known for its sprinter milers. That said, she found the line well at Geelong so has run further than any of these other fillies at this point in time and VRC Oaks winner Miss Finland was from a daughter of Woodman.
9/ Sweet Mischief (3f Zoffany (IRE) x Sugar Cube, by Octagonal) - Placed twice from four starts and did a lot wrong last start when unplaced in Group III MRC Caulfield Classic at 2000m.
By a sire whose Northern Hemisphere progeny have outperformed their SH bred cousins and while her dam is by a Derby hero in Octagonal and she does come from the family of a Derby winner in Sonntag, I'm not thinking her maiden status will change on Thursday.
10/ Four Koalas (3f Animal Kingdom (USA) x Dianthus, by Red Ransom (USA) – Maiden after seven starts and beaten a long way behind Aloisia last start in the Group II MVRC Vase.
By a Kentucky Derby winner and her grand-dam Slightly Pink did run second in the WA Oaks, so you can see why connections think stayer, but she might not be a very fast one.
11/ Circuleight (3f Sebring x Allow, by Rahy) – Placed in three of five starts and untried in stakes class.
By a versatile sire that can get a stayer and is from a Queensland Oaks winner, so she's bred to be here, but would require a massive leap of faith to suggest she could win.
12/ Miss Admiration (3f Sebring x Admiring by Street Cry (IRE) – Unplaced in six starts, so owners must want tickets for Oaks Day.
By the same sire as the previous and from a stakes-placed daughter of champion sire Street Cry that placed in a WA Oaks and is a half-sister to a WA Belmont Oaks winner. Lack of ability might be more of an issue than pedigree.
My Selections
1/ Pinot
2/ Aloisia
3/ Luvaluva
4/Hiyaam
7/ Lucky Louie (3f Pluck (USA) x La Bella Luisa, by Clang) – Maiden after nine starts and has been following them around in last two runs over 2000m in stakes company.
Pedigree uninspiring on the whole with no stakes-winners in the first five dams, but third and fourth dams are by staying sires Sir Tristram (IRE) and Hermes (GB) if you were really looking for a positive.
8/ Reliable Dame (NZ) – (3f Reliable Man (GB) x Rosey Dane, by Woodman (USA) – Comes through a different formline having finished fourth in the Geelong Classic 2200m and won her maiden at 1600m.
By the sire of the Derby runner-up Sully which is a plus, although female family is all Australian and better known for its sprinter milers. That said, she found the line well at Geelong so has run further than any of these other fillies at this point in time and VRC Oaks winner Miss Finland was from a daughter of Woodman.
9/ Sweet Mischief (3f Zoffany (IRE) x Sugar Cube, by Octagonal) - Placed twice from four starts and did a lot wrong last start when unplaced in Group III MRC Caulfield Classic at 2000m.
By a sire whose Northern Hemisphere progeny have outperformed their SH bred cousins and while her dam is by a Derby hero in Octagonal and she does come from the family of a Derby winner in Sonntag, I'm not thinking her maiden status will change on Thursday.
10/ Four Koalas (3f Animal Kingdom (USA) x Dianthus, by Red Ransom (USA) – Maiden after seven starts and beaten a long way behind Aloisia last start in the Group II MVRC Vase.
By a Kentucky Derby winner and her grand-dam Slightly Pink did run second in the WA Oaks, so you can see why connections think stayer, but she might not be a very fast one.
11/ Circuleight (3f Sebring x Allow, by Rahy) – Placed in three of five starts and untried in stakes class.
By a versatile sire that can get a stayer and is from a Queensland Oaks winner, so she's bred to be here, but would require a massive leap of faith to suggest she could win.
12/ Miss Admiration (3f Sebring x Admiring by Street Cry (IRE) – Unplaced in six starts, so owners must want tickets for Oaks Day.
By the same sire as the previous and from a stakes-placed daughter of champion sire Street Cry that placed in a WA Oaks and is a half-sister to a WA Belmont Oaks winner. Lack of ability might be more of an issue than pedigree.
My Selections
1/ Pinot
2/ Aloisia
3/ Luvaluva
4/Hiyaam
