2500 metres is a long way and the arduous last furlong frequently undoes some of the better horses, leaving the grinders to fight out the finish so let's take a look at the pedigrees in the search for roughies to challenge the favourites.
1/ Ace High (3c High Chaparral (IRE) x Come Sunday, by Redoute's Choice) – Last start winner of the Group I ATC Spring Champion Stakes gives him a class edge over his rivals and puts him in a position to replicate the success of the last High Chaparral to win this race in Monaco Consul, who also won the Spring Champion Stakes.
His sire won the Epsom Derby and is a renowned source of classic stamina, while
his unraced dam is by champion sire Redoute's Choice from a daughter of Sunday
Silence that won up to 2000 metres. 2500 metres is probably as far as he will
ever want to go, but class will carry him a long way and he is a tenacious
horse when challenged.2/ Tangled (3c Snitzel x Bramble Rose, by Shinko King (IRE) – Second to Ace High in the Spring Champion and second last start in the Group III MRC Caulfield Classic suggest he has the form to figure.
Champion sire Snitzel is yet to sire a Derby or Oaks winner, but Tangled could easily change that given his dam Bramble Rose won the NZ Oaks and he has two siblings that both won stakes races at 2000m. It's plain to see that mum has had more input in this horse than dad, so he's entitled to respect.
3/ Astoria (3c Medaglia D'Oro (USA) x Segue, by Ad Valorem) – Won the Group III Newcastle Spring Stakes and has been running consistently albeit without winning in longer races.
By an outstanding sire from the immortal Eight Carat family that has given us too many Group I winners to name including AJC Derby heroes Octagonal and Don Eduardo. This family is too good to ignore, but I can't help thinking his best trip is a mile.
4/ Eshtiraak (3c Street Cry (IRE) x Succeeding, by Flying Spur) – From the powerful Hayes / Dabernig stable, but form has only been even in the key lead up races.
By an outstanding sire that can get stayers, but he's a half-brother to Group I winning sprinter miler Delago Deluxe from a family of star sprinter milers such as Duporth, Excites and Staging, so there is no reason to think he's going to jump out of the ground here.
5/ Main Stage (NZ) (3g Reliable Man (GB) x Kiri, by Prized (USA)- Impressive winning at Flemington over 1800 metres two starts back and then third in the Group III MRC Caulfield Classic.
Kiwi bred and trained by Kiwis Trent Busuttin and Natalie Young, Main Stage is from the first crop of a very good 2000 metre horse in Reliable Man that would be expected to get Classic horses and his dam is a stakes-winner up to 2200 metres. Not hard to see why the bookies have him as one of the favourites.
6/
Sully (NZ) (3g Reliable Man (GB) x Lady Winifred, by Casual Lies (USA) –
Fourth and third at his past two runs behind Ace High when he made plenty of
mistakes and still ran well.
Same sire and trainers as the previous runner Main Stage and in terms of ability probably very similar. His dam is a three-quarter sister to a 2400 metre stakes-winner in Romeo George, who is by Casual Lies, the sire of a dual Group I winning stayer in Australia in Coco Cobanna. If you like the favourite, save on Sully as there's nothing between them on pedigree or performance.
7/ Weather With You (3g Teofilo (IRE) x Tarique, by Rock of Gibraltar (IRE ) – Broke his maiden in the Listed Geelong Classic over 2200 metres and could easily go on with it.
Another top chance trained by Kiwis in Murray Baker and Andrew Forsman, who have a great record in the Aussie classics and this fellow is certainly bred to be here. By the sire of Humidor, Weather With You is from a half-sister to Group II winner Pasta Express, who won up to 2800 metres and his s second dam is by renowned staying sire Nassipour (USA). Ticks a lot of boxes.
8/ Aberro (3c All Too Hard x Secret Cause, by Giant's Causeway (USA) – Has been running on steadily in lead up runs and was a troubled last start fourth in the Group III MRC Caulfield Classic.
Three-quarter brother to Group I SA Derby winner Escado and half-brother to Group II winner (1600m) Se Sauveur so has some pedigree to back him up and a good showing would not surprise.
9/ Pisarro (3c Pierro x Sirani, by Galileo) - Has only won one of eight starts, but was a last start fourth (distant) in the Group II MVRC Vase last Saturday.
On pedigree, he has Derby written all over him! Yes his sire won a Golden Slipper, but Pierro was always a bit of an anomaly in that he was bred more like a classic horse and so far with his progeny we are seeing some of that come out. Pissaro is from a daughter of the world's best sire in Galileo and she's a half-sister to Group I winner Black Mamba, who won up to 2400 metres and ATC Australian Derby winner Roman Emperor is another close relation. If pedigrees won races, Pissaro would be the favourite.
10 / Justice Faith (3c Hinchinbrook x Testagame, by Testa Rossa) – Broke his maiden at Kyneton two starts back with runs on either side in better company proving inconclusive given he was blocked for a run.
On face value, Hinchinbrook x Testa Rossa hardly screams stayer, but there's a bit more going on with this female family which has a happy knack for throwing up stayers, think Lisa's Game, Wheal Leisure and a bit further back we have Group I stayers Bazelle and Volatile Mix. Not likely to win, but not impossible.
11/ Ocean's Fourteen (NZ) (3c Ocean Park x Ruud Van Slaats, by Van Nistelrooy) – Lightly raced with just one win from three starts and only made his debut on September 20, but a good last start second in the Geelong Classic at 2200 metres gives cause for optimism.
His dad won the Cox Plate and was very good up to 2000 metres and his mum was a very smart Group II winning sprinter miler by a sire that left NZ Oaks winner Boundless. Ocean's Fourteen was the most expensive yearling sold at Karaka from the first crop of Ocean Park so is obviously a great sort and I'd rather be with him than against him.
12/ Greycliffe (NZ) (3c Tavistock x Tristraad, by Volksraad) – Has won two of four at lesser tracks and beat the older horses with a leg in the air at Seymour over 2200 metres last start.
That win made him a Breednet 'One to Watch' and he has a Derby pedigree being by Tavistock from an unraced half-sister to four-time Group I winner Giovana and grand-daughter of Group I Queensland Derby winner Tristina.
13/ Johnny Vinko (NZ (3g Savabeel x Brazen, by O'Reilly) – Lightly raced maiden that has placed in three of four starts and trained by the same Kiwi duo that have Sully and Main Stage, who he finished very close to when third in the Listed VRC UCI Stakes.
By top Kiwi sire Savabeel from a half-sister to Group II AJC Summer Cup (2400m) winner Zanetta so pedigree unlikely to be the thing stopping him from winning and wide gate last start did him no favours. Can surprise.
14/ Nothing Too Hard (3g All Too Hard x Ashley's Kitty (USA), by Tale of the Cat) – Yet to win in 10 starts although placed at two of last three in longer races against older horses at Newcastle.
From one of the best families in North America that produced this year's $2.7 million Keeneland September sale-topper, but in the context of this assignment I suspect everything will be too hard!
15/ Rockarral (3g High Chaparral (IRE) x Teardrop Rock, by Fastnet Rock) – Lightly raced with a win and two placings from four starts and even run when midfield in the Geelong Classic after drawing wide.
Bred and retained to race by Linda Huddy, who is no stranger to Derby success having won classics with Shoot Out and Volatile Mix. Dam won up to 1900 metres and next two dams are by Zabeel and Star Way (GB), so pedigree is there, but am thinking he will be a stronger more seasoned horse in the autumn.
16/ Wolfe Tone (NZ) (3g Mettre En Jeu x Aint All Trumps, by Zabeel) – Maiden with two placings from three starts and not disgraced when sixth to Aloisia last Saturday in the Group II MVRC Vase over 2040 metres.
His sire, who is by Montjeu, was second in a New Zealand Derby and his dam won up to 2200 metres and is by Zabeel. He's bred to stay, but whether he can stay fast enough to figure in the finish remains to be seen and the outside barrier will not help his cause.
17E Beachwood (NZ) (3g Ocean Park x Woodminco, by Woodman) – Maiden after five starts, but was second at his last two runs in long distance (2000m) maidens at lesser tracks.
He's from a noted Australian speed female family, so I don't think he's going to be thrilled when he discovers there is another 500 metres to run this time.
MY SELECTIONS
1/ Tangled
2/ Sully
3/ Ocean's Fourteen
Roughie- Greycliffe
Same sire and trainers as the previous runner Main Stage and in terms of ability probably very similar. His dam is a three-quarter sister to a 2400 metre stakes-winner in Romeo George, who is by Casual Lies, the sire of a dual Group I winning stayer in Australia in Coco Cobanna. If you like the favourite, save on Sully as there's nothing between them on pedigree or performance.
7/ Weather With You (3g Teofilo (IRE) x Tarique, by Rock of Gibraltar (IRE ) – Broke his maiden in the Listed Geelong Classic over 2200 metres and could easily go on with it.
Another top chance trained by Kiwis in Murray Baker and Andrew Forsman, who have a great record in the Aussie classics and this fellow is certainly bred to be here. By the sire of Humidor, Weather With You is from a half-sister to Group II winner Pasta Express, who won up to 2800 metres and his s second dam is by renowned staying sire Nassipour (USA). Ticks a lot of boxes.
8/ Aberro (3c All Too Hard x Secret Cause, by Giant's Causeway (USA) – Has been running on steadily in lead up runs and was a troubled last start fourth in the Group III MRC Caulfield Classic.
Three-quarter brother to Group I SA Derby winner Escado and half-brother to Group II winner (1600m) Se Sauveur so has some pedigree to back him up and a good showing would not surprise.
9/ Pisarro (3c Pierro x Sirani, by Galileo) - Has only won one of eight starts, but was a last start fourth (distant) in the Group II MVRC Vase last Saturday.
On pedigree, he has Derby written all over him! Yes his sire won a Golden Slipper, but Pierro was always a bit of an anomaly in that he was bred more like a classic horse and so far with his progeny we are seeing some of that come out. Pissaro is from a daughter of the world's best sire in Galileo and she's a half-sister to Group I winner Black Mamba, who won up to 2400 metres and ATC Australian Derby winner Roman Emperor is another close relation. If pedigrees won races, Pissaro would be the favourite.
10 / Justice Faith (3c Hinchinbrook x Testagame, by Testa Rossa) – Broke his maiden at Kyneton two starts back with runs on either side in better company proving inconclusive given he was blocked for a run.
On face value, Hinchinbrook x Testa Rossa hardly screams stayer, but there's a bit more going on with this female family which has a happy knack for throwing up stayers, think Lisa's Game, Wheal Leisure and a bit further back we have Group I stayers Bazelle and Volatile Mix. Not likely to win, but not impossible.
11/ Ocean's Fourteen (NZ) (3c Ocean Park x Ruud Van Slaats, by Van Nistelrooy) – Lightly raced with just one win from three starts and only made his debut on September 20, but a good last start second in the Geelong Classic at 2200 metres gives cause for optimism.
His dad won the Cox Plate and was very good up to 2000 metres and his mum was a very smart Group II winning sprinter miler by a sire that left NZ Oaks winner Boundless. Ocean's Fourteen was the most expensive yearling sold at Karaka from the first crop of Ocean Park so is obviously a great sort and I'd rather be with him than against him.
12/ Greycliffe (NZ) (3c Tavistock x Tristraad, by Volksraad) – Has won two of four at lesser tracks and beat the older horses with a leg in the air at Seymour over 2200 metres last start.
That win made him a Breednet 'One to Watch' and he has a Derby pedigree being by Tavistock from an unraced half-sister to four-time Group I winner Giovana and grand-daughter of Group I Queensland Derby winner Tristina.
13/ Johnny Vinko (NZ (3g Savabeel x Brazen, by O'Reilly) – Lightly raced maiden that has placed in three of four starts and trained by the same Kiwi duo that have Sully and Main Stage, who he finished very close to when third in the Listed VRC UCI Stakes.
By top Kiwi sire Savabeel from a half-sister to Group II AJC Summer Cup (2400m) winner Zanetta so pedigree unlikely to be the thing stopping him from winning and wide gate last start did him no favours. Can surprise.
14/ Nothing Too Hard (3g All Too Hard x Ashley's Kitty (USA), by Tale of the Cat) – Yet to win in 10 starts although placed at two of last three in longer races against older horses at Newcastle.
From one of the best families in North America that produced this year's $2.7 million Keeneland September sale-topper, but in the context of this assignment I suspect everything will be too hard!
15/ Rockarral (3g High Chaparral (IRE) x Teardrop Rock, by Fastnet Rock) – Lightly raced with a win and two placings from four starts and even run when midfield in the Geelong Classic after drawing wide.
Bred and retained to race by Linda Huddy, who is no stranger to Derby success having won classics with Shoot Out and Volatile Mix. Dam won up to 1900 metres and next two dams are by Zabeel and Star Way (GB), so pedigree is there, but am thinking he will be a stronger more seasoned horse in the autumn.
16/ Wolfe Tone (NZ) (3g Mettre En Jeu x Aint All Trumps, by Zabeel) – Maiden with two placings from three starts and not disgraced when sixth to Aloisia last Saturday in the Group II MVRC Vase over 2040 metres.
His sire, who is by Montjeu, was second in a New Zealand Derby and his dam won up to 2200 metres and is by Zabeel. He's bred to stay, but whether he can stay fast enough to figure in the finish remains to be seen and the outside barrier will not help his cause.
17E Beachwood (NZ) (3g Ocean Park x Woodminco, by Woodman) – Maiden after five starts, but was second at his last two runs in long distance (2000m) maidens at lesser tracks.
He's from a noted Australian speed female family, so I don't think he's going to be thrilled when he discovers there is another 500 metres to run this time.
MY SELECTIONS
1/ Tangled
2/ Sully
3/ Ocean's Fourteen
Roughie- Greycliffe
