The Group I VRC Victoria Derby at Flemington on Saturday is worth a whopping $2 million and the testing trip of 2500m means a lot of horses are not going to see it out strongly and in a year like this one with no established Group I class horses engaged, it’s going to be a lottery, so let’s take a look at the pedigrees.
1/ Apulia (c Fiorente (IRE) x Giannarelli, by High Chaparral (IRE) - Won the G2 Moonee Valley Vase at 2040m last Saturday by a margin and is clearly improving with racing, so looks set to peak from a good gate.
Absolutely bred to run the trip being by a Melbourne Cup winning sire in Fiorente from a daughter of Epsom Derby winner High Chaparral and while there is speed enough in this female family to give him a turn of foot, his fifth dam is Just Now, who won the AJC Oaks.
2/Verdad (g Justify (IRE) x Whistle Baby, by Magnus) – Done nothing wrong in four starts winning debut at 1300m before second in the G2 Stutt, sixth in the G1 Caulfield Guineas and then gallant second in G2 Moonee Valley Vase.
One of two in the race for Justify, who won the US Triple Crown so was effective up to 2400m, but he is yet to be proven as a sire of long distance stayers with very few runners past 2200m. The female family of Verdad does not suggest long distance stamina with first two dams by speed sires Magnus and Testa Rossa with fourth dam Top Dance, a stakes-winner at 1600m.
3/ Air Assault (g Justify (USA) x Elegant Eagle, by Zabeel )- Finished off well for third in G2 Moonee Valley Vase after easy win in Listed Hill Smith Stakes at 1800m and has plenty of race experience having run successfully at two starting five times culminating with a win in G3 Sires Produce in Adelaide at 1400m.
Second runner for Justify and this one has a Derby pedigree being from Zabeel mare Elegant Eagle, who won up to 2600m and is a sister to the dam of Caulfield Cup winner Southern Speed. Air Assault is a half-brother to G1 Champagne Stakes winner Go Indy Go and G3 winning sprinter Essay Raider, who were both by Bernardini, so there is no lacking for class on the pedigree front and a good mix of speed and stamina with his grand-mother a full sister to Golden Slipper winner Ha Ha.
4/ Riff Rocket (g American Pharoah (USA) x Missile Coda, by Smart Missile) – Staked his Derby claim with a facile five length win in Listed Super Impose Stakes over 1800m and then narrowly beaten in G3 Caulfield Classic at 2000m. Only once out of the top two in six starts.
American Pharoah also won the US Triple Crown so could get a classic trip and to this point has also sired a couple of staying stakes-winners as well as Pavitra, who was second in the VRC Oaks last year. Female pedigree is all about speed with the best horses in the family being sprinters like Rain Affair, Walk Alone and Ranges. If you wanted some sliver of hope that he could run the trip look to eighth dam Rainbird, who won the 1945 Melbourne Cup…. But gee that’s drawing a long bow!
5/ Sunsets (c Dundeel x Waterloo Sunset, by Fastnet Rock) – Improving with racing and progressed from fourth to Riff Rocket in Super Impose to turn tables and win G3 Caulfield Classic at 2000m.
By Derby winner Dundeel, who has had seven SW’s at 2300m or further including a Derby winner in Dunkel and this colt has a 3 x 3 double cross of Zabeel, another big positive. Dam is G2 placed half-sister to G1 Australasian Oaks winner Invest from G1 Flight Stakes winner Unearthly, so there’s plenty of class here and also going back in the family a couple of Derby winners in Innocent King and Our Planet.
6/ Make a Call (c Extreme Choice x To Dubawi Go by Dubawi (IRE) – Five placings from 15 starts and still a maiden. Had been running in stakes races, but dropped to a 2000m Kembla maiden/ Class 1 last start and couldn’t win there either running second.
Extreme Choice did sire the VRC Oaks winner last year in She’s Extreme, but she was a superstar and Make a Call is not. Dam won up to 2000m and is by world champion sire Dubawi with this female family tracing back to remarkable producer Tautina, who is also the sixth dam of Apulia. Not sure how much longer this guy will be staying a colt!
7/ Gold Bullion (NZ) (3g Savabeel x Gold Rush, by So You Think) – Won the Derby Trial (1800m) at Flemington beating Sunsets and then last start sixth in G3 Caulfield Classic behind the same colt, but has been a bit iffy at the gates, which could be an issue on Saturday with a lot of atmosphere and a big crowd.
By outstanding sire of stayers Savabeel and is a three-quarter brother-in-blood to G1 Australian Derby winner Major Beel. Dam was a G2 winner at two by So You Think and is a half-sister to stakes-winner Calaverite, the dam of Caulfield Guineas winner Golden Mile. This is a very progressive family with two new G1 winners in the last 18 months and Gold Bullion could add to that, although I wonder whether his current campaign may have peaked.
8/ Gates (c Frankel x Bellwether, by Three Valleys) – Lightly raced and set for this race winning first up at 1500m and then finding line well for third in slow run Caulfield Classic at 2000m won by Sunsets.
Bred to win the Epsom Derby, never mind the VRC Derby! By the world’s best stallion in Frankel and dam is a half-sister to Frankel’s G1 winning Australian trained stayer Mirage Dancer from G1winner Heat Haze. Third dam is legendary blue hen Hasili, the dam of five G1 winners. For the record Frankel has sired 43 SW’s at 2300 or further and 14 of them are G1 winners! If pedigrees won races, they could give Gates the trophy now!
9/ Kosgei (g The Autumn Sun x Sara Ann, by Stravinsky (USA) – Lightly raced winner on debut at Bendigo over 1300m in August followed by a good second at Sandown at 1600m, then failed behind Riff Rocket in Super Impose Stakes before bouncing back for third in Geelong Classic (2200m).
By The Autumn Sun, who probably could have won a Derby if he had run in one and is a half-brother to G1 Australian Derby winner Tavago from an outstanding Kiwi family that has produced Derby winners Grosvenor, National Gallery and Oaks winner Mahaya. Pedigree is a definite yes.
10/ Bulawayo (c Fiorente (IRE) x Sense in the City, by Street Sense (USA) – Broke maiden at 1600m at Bendigo in September and then battling fifth and fourth in the Super Impose and Moonee Valley Vase.
Bred by Trevor Delroy, who has a knack for breeding stayers so on that basis you have to respect and the European female family mixed with Melbourne Cup winning sire add to the picture. Bulawayo will stay all day, but whether that’s good enough for this assignment remains to be seen.
11/ Sacred Eagle (c Alpine Eagle x God Bless Us, by Flying Spur) – Broke his maiden at Kyneton over 1860m two starts ago and only run out of maiden class was fourth in the Geelong Classic (2200m).
By Alpine Eagle, a G2 winning son of High Chaparral that stands in Tasmania and is a half-brother to a very good 3YO in Soul Patch (Shamus Award), who won the G2 Moonee Valley Vase and was second in the Victoria Derby of his year. Female family is more about speed, but with High Chaparral and Zabeel through his sire you can’t discount from a good gate as a rough place chance.
12/ Roguery (g Into Mischief x Sweet Strike, by Smart Strike) – Lightly raced and comes into this off two wins breaking his maiden at Tatura over 1980m and then winning again at Kilmore at 2000m, but untested in stakes class.
By Into Mischief, who was the Champion Sire in North America last year, but of his 138 lifetime stakes-winners only two have won at 2400m. His US female family has plenty of class but nothing to suggest 2500m will be an ideal distance for him.
13/ Mercante (g Dundeel x Breccia, by Fastnet Rock ) – Lightly raced, broke maiden over 2000m at Ballarat two starts back and then second over same course in a Benchmark 64.
Second in the race for Dundeel and is a three-quarter brother to G1 winning sprinter and sire Tivaci, who was by High Chaparral. Dam won at 2000m and is a half-sister to G1 Toorak Handicap winner Allez Wonder from G2 Perth Cup winner Luna Tudor, who won at 3200m. Bred for optimism, but form would need to improve sharply.
14/ To Be Frank (NZ) (c Almanzor (Fr) x Veronica Franco, by Johar (USA) – Only three starts with lone win at Pakenham synthetic at 1600m and then last start couldn’t beat a runner home in G3 Caulfield Classic.
By the same sire as last year’s Victoria Derby winner Manzoice and dam is a G3 up to 2000m, but would take a leap of faith to put him in the mix although Maher and Eustace must see something in him.
15/ Warialda Warrior (g Saxon Warrior (Jpn) x Romance Writer, by One Cool Cat (USA) – Has had three 2000m plus runs at his last three outings coming here off an easy win at Scone where he is trained by John Ramsey, who nearly won the VRC Oaks in 2019 with a long shot called Never Listen, who won the same race at Scone before heading to Melbourne.
His sire is blueblood G1 winning Deep Impact son Saxon Warrior and dam is a half-sister to the dam of G1 Australian Derby winner Tavago and Kosgei, who also runs in this race. This horse is bred to be a Derby horse and John Ramsey has trained him that way so I’ll be cheering him on!
16/ Tokyo Run (NZ) (g Staphanos (Jpn) x Press Issue, by Your Song) – Only maiden in the field and not hopeless with three placings from six starts and last start fifth in G3 Caulfield Classic.
By another Deep Impact son in Japanese bred G3 winner Staphanos and is first foal of Press Issue, who raced twice unsuccessfully, but is related to G1 winning milers Press Statement and Pressday, with another G1 miler Lion’s Roar also on the page. Nothing makes me think the maiden tag will be shed this Saturday.
Tips
1/ Gates
2/ Apulia
3/ Air Assault
4/ Riff Rocket
Roughie- Warialda Warrior
