European form expert raises doubts over Caulfield Cup favourite

Ben Dorries - Friday October 20

A leading European form expert believes Caulfield Cup favourite Johannes Vermeer is silly odds given he feels there are serious doubts about the Irish raider running a strong 2400m.

Sky Racing's European form expert Richard Wade has a few question marks on whether Caulfield Cup favourite Johannes Vermeer will run a strong 2400m

Sky Racing's Richard Wade points out the Aidan O'Brien galloper has only once run over 2400m and feels he was clearly outstayed by stablemate Spanish Steps in the Group III Ballyroan Stakes (1m4f - 2414m) in Ireland in August.

Johannes Vermeer is as short as $4 in some Caulfield Cup betting markets after tumbling into favouritism following the injury during the week to Japanese galloper Admire Deus.

Many punters were taken with Johannes Vermeer's fast-finishing second on his Australian debut in the Group I Ladbrokes Stakes (2000m) last Saturday.

But European expert Wade, who originally hails from Yorkshire, isn't so sure.

"I think 2400m would be the absolute maximum he wants, at his second last run he was basically just outstayed by Spanish Steps," Wade said.

"The change of tactics with Johannes Vermeer to be ridden more forward will probably suit him in the Caulfield Cup.

"He could win but I struggle to see it, I think he is more of a 2000m horse and others will be stronger at the finish of the Caulfield Cup.

"I certainly think he is too short in betting."

Wade also ran his eyes over overseas-trained Caulfield Cup hopes Marmelo ($17) and Wicklow Brave ($51).

And he has discounted them both in the $3m race on Saturday.

The Hughie Morrison-trained Marmelo won the Group II Prix Kergorlay (3000m) in August, a race which is traditionally a good Melbourne Cup guide.

Protectionist won the Prix Kergorlay before claiming the Melbourne Cup in 2014 while Americain defeated Manighar in the 2010 edition of the French feature before winning the Melbourne Cup two starts later.

However Wade wasn't taken by the Kergorlay this year.

"It was a bit of a farce of a race this year when Marmelo got to the front and absolutely walked," Wade said.

"He is certainly still improving but I just can't see him winning over this short (Caulfield Cup 2400m).

"I am sure he is much more of a Melbourne Cup horse."

As for Willie Mullins' Irish stayer Wicklow Brave trying to become the first nine-year-old to win the Caulfield Cup, Wade can't see it happening.

But he does think Wicklow Brave's form hasn't deteriorated since he ventured to Australia last year as one of the top handful of Melbourne Cup hopes.

Wicklow Brave, who reverted to hurdle racing for his last win in April, was beaten more than 24 lengths in last year's Melbourne Cup after getting a torrid run from the widest gate.

"To be honest Wicklow Brave's form coming here this year is just as good, if not slightly better in patches, than it was last year," Wade said.

"I just think the Caulfield Cup distance will be too short for him.

"One thing about these dual purpose horses though, is they are tough horses."

Advertisment
More Reading...
Rosemont and Partners Stakes Quinella on Cup Day
Written Tycoon posted his second new stakes-winner on Melbourne Cup Day when promising three year-old gelding Catoggio took out the Listed VRC Amanda Elliot Stakes (1400m)  for Rosemont Stud and partners, who also race the second horse Bosustow.
Kiwi Bred Gringotts Wins $3million Big Dance
Talented New Zealand-bred gelding Gringotts(NZ) (Per Incanto) delivered a big payday for his connections with victory in Tuesday’s A$3 million Big Dance (1600m) at Randwick.
Cup Day Stakes-Winner for So You Think
The Listed VRC TAB Trophy (1800m) for three year-olds on Cup Day at Flemington drew a competitive field of up and comers with So You Think gelding Opening Address stamping himself as a bright prospect for the future with a stylish victory.
Tycoon Star Makes Winning Debut in G3 Maribyrnong Plate
Tycoon Star looked like the consummate professional when making a winning career debut in the Group III Darley Maribyrnong Plate (1000m) to kickstart Melbourne Cup Day at Flemington.
Storm Boy Headed to Ireland
Coolmore have today announced via Twitter that top class Justify (USA) colt Storm Boy will be continuing his racing career in Ireland in 2025 under the care of Aidan O’Brien.
Magic Nick Strikes Again – Fastnet Rock x Galileo
The Fastnet Rock x Galileo nick has been on fire in Melbourne this spring producing Cox Plate winner Via Sistina (IRE) and leading Melbourne Cup contender Buckaroo (GB) and it struck again overnight in the UK with a brand new stakes-winner in Military Academy, who captured the Listed Floodlit Stakes (1m4f) at Kempton.
All Too Hard's Arran Bay Brave in the Furphy Plate
Phillip Stokes admitted his preference was to run Arran Bay in the Listed John Letts Cup at Morphettville but was overruled by the owners, who made the correct decision in favouring the Listed Furphy Plate (1800m) at Flemington.
Melbourne Cup Pedigree Analysis - Do It Yourself
Breednet has produced a great page with click through to five generation pedigrees for all the Melbourne Cup runners, so for amateur pedigree buffs looking to have a Cup flutter based pedigree here’s your chance  to DIY it!
Kiwi Bred Grey Wins Subzero for OTI at Flemington
New Zealand-bred gelding Cloudland proved a handful for James McDonald at Flemington on Tuesday, but the champion jockey was in a forgiving mood after they had claimed top honours in the Subzero Handicap.
2024 Melbourne Cup Result - It's Knights Choice
The 2024 Melbourne Cup has been run and won with Knight’s Choice, a five-year-old gelding by Extreme Choice victorious.