Caulfield Cup tips and trifectas

Breednet - Friday October 20

The $3 million Caulfield Cup will be run on Saturday and here's the tips and trifectas from our editorial team.

We asked the boys for their Caulfield Cup tip based on a $50 investment and also what they'd do in the trifecta with $50 to play with.

The Caulfield Cup will be run as Race 8 on Saturday and they are scheduled to jump at 4.30pm.

STEPHEN BRASSEL

No. 3 – JOHANNES VERMEER ($50 WIN): Tried to get away from the favourite but the more I looked at his Caulfield Stakes run the more I can't see him being beaten provided he backs up and gets even luck from an inside gate. Powered to the line under weight-for-age conditions and back to a handicap here looks beautifully placed and I've got no concerns with him stepping up to 2400m having run a close second in Group III company at Leopardstown prior to his trip down-under. One major plus here is, while he is trained by Aidan O'Brien there's no doubt owner Lloyd Williams will have had significant input into the horse's preparation.

TRIFECTA – ($50 GETS YOU 69.00%)

1st

3

2nd

1, 4, 7, 9, 11, 14, 15, 16, 17

3rd

1, 4, 7, 9, 11, 14, 15, 16, 17

CLINTON PAYNE

No. 3 – JOHANNES VERMEER ($50 WIN):  I can't go past the lead-up run of this Aidan O'Brien international raider. I loved the way he ate up the ground late to get within a head of Gailo Chop in the Caulfield Stakes, defying the on-pace pattern of the race. Using that run as a guide I can't see how Jon Snow could turn the tables on him on Saturday and I regard the Kiwi as one of this Galileo stallion's biggest dangers. Only once during his 13 start career has he backed up in seven days and he won a Group I so that box is ticked and at his only 2400m run he was beaten a half-length in an Irish Group III two starts back when they beat the third horse easily. If he gets even luck in running, he will be hard to stop. The best roughie in the race is Hardham. He's well weighted and was beaten less than a length in the Australian Derby fourth-up in the autumn.

TRIFECTA – ($50 GETS YOU 50%)

1st

3, 7

2nd

2, 3, 4, 7, 9, 12

3rd

1, 2, 4, 7, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 16, 17

BRAD WATERS

No. 3 WICKLOW BRAVE ($25 EACH-WAY): I was on the Admire Deus bandwagon before the Japanese galloper's unfortunate injury, which showed the perils of 'all-in' betting in the Cups, so have had to look elsewhere. I've come up with Wicklow Brave in the Caulfield Cup because of the way he has thrived at the Werribee quarantine centre. He has been happy and keen in his work and, interestingly, he did work in blinkers on Thursday morning. Ignore his run in last year's Melbourne Cup in which he had a tough trip from the outside gate. Has drawn wide again in the Caulfield Cup but has had a lot more racing before heading to Australia this year with seven runs in 2017. He rolled forward and did a good job behind Rekindling in the Curragh Cup and in July and I'm thinking Joao Moreira will adopt similar tactics.

TRIFECTA – BOXED – ($50 GETS YOU 23.80%)

1st

1, 3, 8, 9, 10, 11, 14

2nd

1, 3, 8, 9, 10, 11, 14

3rd

1, 3, 8, 9, 10, 11, 14

TOM WALTER

No. 14 – ABBEY MARIE ($25 EACH-WAY) : Going with some value in Abbey Marie. Ran well in the Caulfield Stakes last Saturday, finishing off as good as anything after getting too far back in a leader dominated affair. She's crying out for 2400m and is drawn favourably in five. With only 51.5kg on her back she looks the best roughie for sure.

TRIFECTA – BOXED – ($50 GETS YOU 41.66%)

1st

1, 2, 3, 4, 11, 14

2nd

1, 2, 3, 4, 11, 14

3rd

1, 2, 3, 4, 11, 14

DARRYL SHERER

No. 7 – JON SNOW ($25 EACH-WAY) : Just keeps improving and has plenty of points in his favour. He's a Group I winner over the trip, will race near the speed, has drawn ideally and is ready to peak after four runs this preparation. His chance will only be enhanced in the event of a soft track – I know, highly unlikely – and with the way the race is shaping he looks to have an undeniable chance. Rate Bonneval and Inference highly but I can see Jon Snow getting the run of the race and proving too strong in run home.

TRIFECTA – BOXED – ($50 GETS YOU 41.66%)

1st

3, 4, 9, 11, 12, 15

2nd

3, 4, 9, 11, 12, 15

3rd

3, 4, 9, 11, 12, 15

BEN DORRIES

No. 15 – HARLEM ($50 WIN) : So much to like about this Lindsay Park European import. Drops 5kg and will hardly know himself with 51.5kg, draws a beautiful soft gate and the blinkers finally go on for the $3 million Caulfield Cup which should improve him a length or two. Smashed them in the Group III Naturalism then had a tough work-out in a brutally run edition of The Bart Cummings which will have topped him off for this. We are getting double figure odds and I'm keen to have a lash. Happy to take on a few of those backing up from last week.

TRIFECTA – ($50 GETS YOU 62.50%)

1st

4, 15

2nd

3, 4, 7, 15, 16, 17

3rd

1, 2, 3, 4, 7, 8, 12, 15, 16, 17

TOM BADDOCK

No. 16 – AMELIE'S STAR ($50 WIN) : I've been following this Darren Weir-trained mare all preparation. She raced without any luck prior to her outstanding win in the Bart Cummings (2500m) and could easily have had one or two more wins to her name this prep. She has closed hard on each occasion, recording outstanding sectionals and what makes me confident she will be right in the finish of the Caulfield Cup was the ease of her Bart Cummings win over the final stages – the further they went the further she was getting away. That was against last year's Melbourne Cup winner Almandin and dominant Naturalism winner Harlem. She's undefeated at all four career starts above 2000m and with just the featherweight of 51kg on her back and big race jockey Craig Williams aboard, I'm confident she can run a big race at nice odds.

TRIFECTA – BOXED – ($50 GETS YOU 41.66%)

1st

1, 2, 3, 11, 14, 16

2nd

1, 2, 3, 11, 14, 16

3rd

1, 2, 3, 11, 14, 16

Advertisment
More Reading...
Dam of Coco Sun to be offered at Inglis Broodmare Sale
There were emotional scenes at Riverside as the Tyreel Stud team watched one of their favourite fillies Coco Sun (The Autumn Sun) win the G1 South Australian Derby at Morphettville and her dam, who is back in foal to The Autumn Sun, will be offered in the Inglis Broodmare Sale on Friday.
Sires With Winners - Sunday May 5
Here is the full list of 56 stallions which had winners throughout Australasia today with winners and result details.
Mystik Dan Triumphs in Dramatic Kentucky Derby
While the close relatives Sierra Leone and Forever Young (JPN) engaged in a not-so-friendly family spat down the straight, Mystik Dan enjoyed an unhindered rail run to capture the 150th Kentucky Derby at Churchill Dowms, completing a memorable weekend for jockey Brian Hernandez Jr and trainer Ken McPeek.
Danon Ayers Rock Back in Business
The winner of both of his starts at two, Mosheen’s son Danon Ayers Rock (JPN) lost his unbeaten record when finishing midfield in his seasonal debut in the Group II Deep Impact Kinen at Nakayama on March 3 before returning to the winner’s circle in Saturday’s Listed Principal Stakes (2000m) at Tokyo.
Alma Vale / Kitchwin Hills to Offer Lone I Am Invincible Filly at Inglis Weanlings
The newly created Alma Vale /Kitchwin Hills Partnership run by Verna Metcalfe (General Manager of Alma Vale and Kitchwin Hills) and Stud Manager Oscar Englebrecht has hit the ground running this year and have been kept busy at Riverside Stables this week with a draft of 24 youngsters to be offered at the Inglis Australian Weanling Sale next Monday and Tuesday.
Western Empire Turns Back the Clock
The winner of the 2021 Group 1 WATC Railway Stakes and Group II Western Australian Derby, the 6-year-old Iffraaj (GB) gelding Western Empire turned back the clock to win Sunday’s $200,000 Group III Tabtouch Northam Stakes (1300m).
Yarraman Park Celebrate Historic Achievement - I Am Invincible Sets New Record
One of Australia's premier thoroughbred studs, Yarraman Park proudly acknowledges a momentous milestone in the world of horse racing and breeding in Australia.
War Decree Fee Rise
Inglewood Stud’s young stallion War Decree will stand at a slightly increased fee of $7,000 +GST in 2024, up from $5,500 in 2023.
Guineas Upset – Shock Result
An unbeaten colt by a champion sire won the Group I Newmarket The Two Thousand Guineas (1m) overnight, but it wasn’t the one most people thought.
Kristilli Added to Magic Millions Supplementary Mares
The build up to this month's Magic Millions National Broodmare Sale on the Gold Coast has intensified with the release today of the first supplementary lots.