The stats that matter for the weekend’s Group I races

Tom Walter - Friday October 13

Historical data can be a useful tool in finding feature race winners and Racenet has drilled down through past results of Caulfield’s four Group I races this weekend to come up with some real value possibilities.

Bonneval is the favourite for this Saturday's Group I Caulfield Stakes. Photo: Darryl Sherer

CAULFIELD STAKES

·Favourites have a strong record – 11 winners and only four unplaced from last 22 starters

·Underwood Stakes superior form race – eight winners have completed the double since 2000

·Of the last 17 winners, only Ocean Park, Atlantic Jewel, So You Think, Lonhro, and Northerly (all champions) had not previously won beyond 2000m

·Damien Oliver is aiming to become most successful jockey in race's history shooting for his fifth win – rides Taj Mahal ($15)

·Only one winner has jumped from barrier one since 1983

Based on the above data which runner is the most attractive betting proposition? No.11. Bonneval ($3.10 Luxbet)

CAULFIELD GUINEAS

·Most recent filly to win – Surround (1976)

·Only four winners since 2000 had won a Group I during the previous season at two

·Stan Fox Stakes has provided the last three winners but is now held two weeks before the Golden Rose – a race which now shapes as the likely superior formline for the future

·Last six winners have been NSW-trained

·Since 1991 only two winners finished further back than fourth at their previous start

Based on the above data which runner is the most attractive betting proposition? No.7. Gold Standard ($11 William Hill)

THOUSAND GUINEAS

·Edward Manifold Stakes has provided 50 percent of the winners since 1998

·Flight Stakes is two weeks before this year and provides an ideal lead-up (compared to seven and 10-day gaps in previous years)

·This year sees the smallest field assembled (8) since the race became a Group I in 1979

·Favourites have been unplaced four of the last six years

·Of the last 10 winners, only Serious Speed (2007) won deeper than the fifth run of a preparation

Based on the above data which runner is the most attractive betting proposition? 4. Pure Scot ($31 Centrebet)

TOORAK HANDICAP

·Only two winners have started from a barrier outside of 12 since 1983.

·There have been four topweight winners in the last seven years while 15 of the last 21 winners have carried 55kg or more

·Disregard last start performances. Winners previous runs have ranged from 1st to 16th since 1994 – despite most coming out of the 1400m Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes which is run under the same handicap conditions at the same track

·32 of the last 33 winners had either won or placed at 1600m

·Every winner since 1991 had previous experience at Caulfield

Based on the above data which runner is the most attractive betting proposition? 1. Tosen Stardom ($12 Ladbrokes)

Advertisment
More Reading...
One to Watch – Moonee Valley
This promising three year-old Cosmic Force filly made it wo wins in as many starts at Moonee Valley on Friday night with a tenacious display.
Luberon Heads Cambridge Stud Saturday Charge
Lance Noble will attempt to add to a strong run of spring form for Cambridge Stud when he sends out five well-credentialled runners in Brendan and Jo Lindsay’s black and gold colours at Pukekohe on Saturday.
$1.3million Snitzel Colt Ready to Fire on Debut for Te Akau
Mark Walker and Sam Bergerson are confident they have the young firepower to make an early impression in the first of the black type features at Pukekohe Park on Saturday.
Sires With Winners - Friday November 22
Here is the full list of 46 stallions which had winners throughout Australasia today with winners and result details.
$2,000 Gavelhouse Bargain Keeps on Winning!
The Grey Goose continued to belie her purchase price last start when recording her fifth win at Wingatui, bringing her career earnings to more than $225,000.
Magic Millions 2025 Magazine Online
The 2025 Magic Millions magazine is now online with a great mix of gallery images, editorial and vendor profilies.
Best On Breeding
The cerise, white crossed sashes and black cap of Bob Peters, Peter's Investments, may not be the once dominant force they have been for decades in Western Australian racing, but they are far from finished.
Cambridge Stud News
It’s been the spring that keeps giving for Cambridge Stud and it’s not over yet.
Halo Racing Reduction features in November (Late) catalogue
Shares in reigning G1 Caulfield Cup champion Duke de Sessa, G1 Toorak Hcp winner Attrition and tomorrow’s G1 Railway Stakes favourite Light Infantry Man headline an exciting Inglis Digital November (Late) Online Sale.
Pinhook Winners 2024 NZB Ready to Run – Churchill Colt the Star
A record breaking NZB Ready to Run Sale this week at Karaka delivered plenty of pinhook success with 18 two year-olds selling for $300,000 or more above their yearling purchase price, so let’s take a look at some of the best of them.