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Cameron Happ analyses the entire Turnbull Stakes meeting from Flemington

Stephen Brassel - Sunday October 8

Cameron Happ takes an in-depth look at how your money performed and pinpoints some future winners from Flemington in a race-by-race analysis of Turnbull Stakes day.

Race 1 - Maribyrnong Trial Stakes (1000m) - LR

1st - Nomothaj ($4.75)
2nd - Ranier ($9) - 0.1 lens
3rd - Sunlight ($4 fav) - 1.4 lens
Then Followed: Crossing The Abbey ($21), Akkadian ($13), Sanglier ($8.5), Special Design ($61), Scottish Rogue ($12), Bold Type ($6), Lady Bithiah ($12)


Analysis: Always an intriguing race with the entire field on debut. Nomothaj looks a very professional type of two-year-old, she pinged straight to the front but was one of the first under the whip at the 250m, she responded and found plenty to just hold off the fast closer from Godolphin. Ranier has a stack of upside off the run, he was out in the centre of the track and it's a huge advantage to be closer to the rails on these early going babies. To flash home and only just miss is a good sign going forward. Don't give up on Sunlight , she'll improve around a turn and Sanglier had some excuses when he was tightened along the rails as they sprinted.

Money Trail: Nomothaj had good support after easing to $5.50 she was backed into $4.80. Ranier was specked $11-$9. Sunlight was slightly easy $3.60 out to $4 but it was an open betting race where they specked everything apart from Special Design .

Blackbooker: Ranier is clearly the one to follow if they keep him in work for another race. He was out wide with no cover and drove hard late to only just miss. Bred to run at least a mile, he can go right on with it.

 

Race 2 - Antler Luggage Stakes (1400m) - LR

1st - Snitzepeg ($15)
2nd - Bravo Tango ($16) - 0.8 lens
3rd - Sircconi ($8) - 1.6 lens
Then Followed: Rellson ($7), Esperance ($3.75 fav), Hulme ($9), Icon Of Dubai ($3.75 fav), Can't Remember ($101), Plutocracy ($12)


Analysis: They only set an even tempo at best here so back markers were up against it. Yendall gave Snitzepeg a dream run just in behind the leaders which allowed him to give a big kick into the straight for a tradesman like win. The story out of the race was Brave Tango . He wasn't overly happy inside horses and then never got a clear crack at them until the 150m before flashing home to get close. No doubt he should have won, against the pattern of the race. Sircconi was a better run than it looks, his nose hit the turf at the start and Rellson did enough for a mile race next start. Expecting Esperance to head to the paddock.

Money Trail: The betting was all about Esperance and Icon Of Dubai . Slightly easy early they were both well backed into $3.70 equal favourites. Plutocracy was well backed early $16 into $9.50 before easing back to $12. Snitzepeg has some specking $16 into $15.

Blackbooker: Bravo Tango is going to be a serious horse when he works out what he's here for. He raced keen inside horses with his head high in the air, and if he got a clear run in the straight he still likely wins this. Black book him for now and next time in.

 

Race 3 - Uci Stakes (1800m) - LR

1st - Main Stage ($8.5)
2nd - Cliff's Edge ($5.5) - 0.3 lens
3rd - Johnny Vinko ($21) - 2.1 lens
Then Followed: Animalia ($4.25 fav), Aberro ($15), Eshtiraak ($5.5), Weather With You ($9), Il Divo ($101), Sunquest ($12), Basanite ($151), Padraig ($31), Give ($31), Silent Command ($31), Into Rio ($41)


Analysis: All honours with the first two across the line here. Main Stage was forced back to last from the wide gate while Cliff's Edge was out in front rolling along at a good even tempo, right in his comfort zone. For Main Stage to hook to the outside at the 400m and charge home in dominant closing sectionals is a super sign heading towards the Derby. Nothing behind him can turn the tables. Cliff's Edge was brave beating the rest comfortably, he might freshen up for a Carbine Club and Sandown Guineas. Johhny Vinko had a soft run but he did enough along the rails at just his third career start. The rest need to lower their sights to be winning a race over the carnival.

Money Trail: Main Stage was unwanted $5.50 out to $8.50. Animalia was best backed $4.60 into $4 before starting $4.20. Cliff's Edge and Eshtiraak held their spots around $5.50 and Sunquest was unwanted.

Blackbooker: All honours with the winner on his way to the Derby but Johnny Vinko is certainly a horse to keep an eye on. Still a maiden but yet to miss a place, if they can find the right race for him next start he'll be hard to beat.

 

Race 4 - Gilgai Stakes (1200m) - G2

1st - Keen Array ($8)
2nd - Sold For Song ($21) - 0.1 lens
3rd - Malibu Style ($26) - 0.2 lens
Then Followed: Bons Away ($10), Silent Sedition ($4), Ulmann ($21), Land Of Plenty ($9), Spieth ($2.75 fav), The Quarterback ($16)


Analysis: A race where you can forgive anything from off the pace. Where they settled was pretty much where they finished apart from one of the roughies in Sold For A Song that did close nicely back nearer the inside. Keen Array hadn't been going that well but fully fit now and allowed to control the front, he fought on strong. Spieth was the obvious disappointment in the race as a short-priced favourite, he did over race early but didn't do a lot in the run to the line for a horse that has loved straight racing in the past. He's becoming a hard horse to trust. Tread a touch warily with these form lines going forward.

Money Trail: Improvement was expected from Keen Array $10 into $7.50 before starting $8. Silent Sedition had support $4.40 into $4 and Spieth was slightly easy $2.60 out to $2.80. Bons Away was unwanted $7 out to $10.

Blackbooker: Silent Sedition had no chance the way this race played out and she may now be looking for longer as a five-year-old mare. She's right on track for whatever they run her in, especially if they can keep her in against her own sex.

 

Race 5 - Seppelt Turnbull Stakes (2000m) - G1

1st - Winx ($1.2 fav)
2nd - Ventura Storm ($17) - 6.5 lens
3rd - Humidor ($7.5) - 7.3 lens
Then Followed: Assign ($51), Sir Isaac Newton ($31), Magicool ($201), Skyfire ($201)

Analysis: Not a lot more I can add that hasn't been said about the freak that is Winx . She's clearly been a mare looking for more ground this time in, she proved that here and I can't remember ever seeing a 2000m G1 race at Flemington that was over so far from home. While the others were all under pressure she hadn't got out of first gear. Ventura Storm is ticking over nicely for longer races where he drops back to handicaps. He's a live chance in the Caulfield Cup and Humidor will be looking for a softer track if he's to turn things around. He didn't enjoy being under pressure to chase from so far out but did keep fighting to the line. She can make a good horse look ordinary.

Money Trail: No real support for anything to beat Winx , she was $1.22 into $1.20. Ventura Storm was specked when he got out to $26 back into $17. Humidor was unwanted $5 out to $7.50.

Blackbooker: Ventura Storm is getting a perfectly timed preparation for both cups. If he draws a gate he can take up a forward spot and run a big race at Caulfield in two weeks' time.

 

Race 6 - Tab Edward Manifold Stakes (1600m) - G2

1st - Bring Me Roses ($17)
2nd - Hiyaam ($21) - 2.3 lens
3rd - Leather'n'lace ($2.75 fav) - 2.5 lens
Then Followed: Pure Scot ($12), Remember The Name ($21), I'll Have A Bit ($15), Pageantry ($26), Anchor Bid ($6.5), Snogging ($11), Pres De Toi ($51), Uptown Gal ($16), Judy In Disguise ($51), Watchmespin ($26), Angelic Spirit ($31), Blondie ($31)


Analysis: Outstanding win Bring Me Roses with few excuses for anything behind her. They ran almost five seconds outside the track record on a Good 3 track, she's come from beyond midfield and put them to the sword over the last 100m. She's by High Chaparral so should only keep improving as she rises in trip. Pure Scot has flashed home again and had no luck from the 300m, if she ever gets into a race with good speed and sees daylight she'll be winning. No excuses Leather'n'lace , she had a perfect sit, hit the front but may just find the mile too far. Snogging was luckless, she's a forgive run as was Pageantry facing the breeze throughout.

Money Trail: Bring Me Roses was unwanted $12 out to $17. Leather'n'lace was rock solid just $2.60 out to $2.70. Anchor Bid had some specking when she touched $7.50 to start $6.50 and there was interest for Remember The Name $31 into $17 before starting $21.

Blackbooker: Doubt any of these can beat the winner over longer trips but the High Chaparral filly Hiyaam was a nice run if she can avoid Bring Me Roses . She was going to drop out when Leather'n'lace put two lengths on her at the 300m. To fight back and fill a place suggests she's a strong staying type.

 

Race 7 - The Bart Cummings (2500m) – G3

1st - Amelie's Star ($4.5)
2nd - Granddukeoftuscany ($101) - 2.0 lens
3rd - Kellstorm ($51) - 2.1 lens
Then Followed: Almandin ($2.25 fav), Harlem ($4.5), Tally ($11), Yogi ($21), Vengeur Masque ($26), Pentathlon ($101), Kinema ($67)


Analysis: Hard to make an excuse for anything behind the winner. Granddukeoftuscany got out in front and rolled them along at a good solid tempo with Amelie's Star trucking along in fourth closer to midfield. She let down hard at the 300m, putting a break on her main dangers and she charged through the line to give nothing else a chance. Kellstorm was a big run but he has been a better horse on wet tracks so for him to charge over the top of the likes of Almandin and Harlem throws the Caulfield and Melbourne cups wide open as neither really had an excuse in the run. Granddukeoftuscany will pick off a race if they drop him back to country cups, he was brave to keep fighting on in this grade.

Money Trail: They backed a few to beat Almandin that was $1.95 out to $2.20 late in betting. Amelie's Star eased to $5.50 before starting $4.60 and Harlem was $5.00 back into his opening quote of $4.40. Tally was the roughie specked, $16 into $11.

Blackbooker: Tricky race for a black booker with them all so exposed. Let's stick with the winner Amelie's Star , she's had a perfectly times prep towards both cups. With the good racing pattern and a light weight, she'll be competitive in both if she can draw a gate.

 

Race 8 - Blazer Stakes (1400m) - G2

1st - Now Or Later ($10)
2nd - Merriest ($7) - 0.4 lens
3rd - Payroll ($41) - 1.2 lens
Then Followed: Petition ($5.5 fav), Euro Angel ($16), Sword Of Light ($11), Eckstein ($13), French Emotion ($31), Missrock ($6.5), Written Era ($61), Prompt Response ($8), Ellicazoom ($11), Give Us A Go ($51), Schism ($41)


Analysis: Turned out a bit of a messy race as once Sword Of Light found the front she slowed them up allowing the back markers to cruise into the race on the turn, there were a few hard luck stories. Merriest is flying this preparation, she exploded to the front off a perfect Damian Oliver ride but Ryan Maloney was good enough to jump straight onto her back and Now Or Later was the stronger mare on the line. Payroll was a huge run fresh to come from the back off just an even tempo, she can pick up a good race. Prompt Response possibly should have won, she went to the line under a vice grip the entire straight. Euro Angel over raced badly then had no luck until getting clear late and Eckstein was held up at a crucial stage after also over racing behind the speed. No excuses Ellicazoom but she was too bad to be true.

Money Trail: Now Or Later had support, $13.00 into $9.00 before starting $10.00. Merriest eased $6.50 to $8.00 before starting $7.00. Petition had early support before easing to start $5.50 favourite. Missrock was solid at $6.50. Prompt Response was also solid starting her opening quote of $8.00.

Blackbooker: Payroll had the flashing light resuming but we'll get much better odds Eckstein going forward. She's fit now for two runs back and did warm up nicely through the line after not having a lot of room just as they sprinted. She goes in all exotics at her next few starts.

 

Race 9 - Paris Lane Hcp (1400m) - LR

1st - Pure Pride ($15)
2nd - Wyndspelle ($7) - 2.0 lens
3rd - Saint Valorem ($15) - 3.0 lens
Then Followed: Master Reset ($51), New Tipperary ($4.75 fav), Tashbeeh ($21), Burning Front ($21), Royal Tudor ($8), Pay Up Bro ($21), Good Project ($4.75 fav), Charmed Harmony ($11)


Analysis: They got it wrong again on the leaders running just over four seconds off the track record on a Good 3 track. They packed up on the turn allowing the back markers to get in touch without doing any work. Pure Pride has always been a mare with G1 ability and she was right back to her best here. She was still under a hold at the 300m before exploding clear to put the race away in a few strides. Wyndspelle was a super run, he couldn't match the winner's acceleration but did steam home. Tashbeeh should have been in the placing's. He had no luck from the turn and he's a horse that needs to get rolling not sit and sprint. New Tipperary did enough facing the breeze three deep the trip.

 

Money Trail: Pure Pride had some support after easing out to $18.00 to start $15.00. Wyndspelle was specked $8.00 into $7.00 late. New Tipperary was $4.20 out to $4.80 in a wide-open race. Royal Tudor had strong support $11.00 into $8 and the best backed runner was Good Project , easing out to $7 before being crunched into $4.80 equal favourite.

Blackbooker: Wyndspelle is flying since joining the Kent stable this preparation. He's a G2 winner over 2000m in NZ so he's crying out for a mile and beyond off two cracking runs at the 1400m. He can win a couple in the right races over the carnival and could be a country cups type.

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