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Paul Joice analyses the entire Epsom Handicap meeting

Stephen Brassel - Sunday October 1
Paul Joice gives a thorough analysis of every race at Randwick on Saturday giving his thoughts on what went right, and what went wrong with your hard earned cash.

In Her Time was beautifully ridden and proved too strong for English in the Premiere Stakes. Photo: Steve Hart
Race 1 - Breeders' Plate (LR) (1000m)

1st - Performer ($5)
2nd - Bondi ($4.5) - 0.8 lens
3rd - Santos ($17) - 2.6 lens
Then Followed: Spin ($11), Osorno ($11), Hiemal ($3.75 fav), Outrageous ($13), Royal Captain ($61), Invincible Lad ($9), Sokudo ($21), Quackerjack ($31) Analysis: Who said Chris Waller can't train early season two-year-olds? Performer paraded like an old-stager prior to the son of Exceed And Excel making his debut but his chances appeared dashed when missing the kick – you can't do that in 1000m races! But Hugh Bowman didn't panic, and Performer soon recovered to enjoy a gun trail 5th on the fence. Second favourite Bondi had enjoyed the run of the race before pouncing on the leaders 200m out, but no sooner had he looked the winner that Performer arrived on the scene – powering away for a dominant win. A final 600m of 32.87 secs turned out to be the fourth fastest of the entire meeting! The pace was set by Invincible Lad and race favourite Hiemal. Godolphin's colt wanted to overdo it before fading in the straight. Santos worked hard three deep no cover throughout – his effort to stick on for third was courageous. Spin and Osorno caught the eye inside the final 150m.

Money Trail: Performer was solid, holding his $5 quote whilst second favourite Bondi was also rock solid at $4.60. The only drifter was the favourite – Hiemal eased from $3.20 to $3.70 in the 30 minutes prior to the jump.

Blackbooker: The winner looks a seriously smart conveyance and no doubt he's in for a stellar two-year-old season. But for the blackbook I'll be jotting down Godolphin's Osorno. He was only getting warmed-up late and looked open to a bit of furnishing. Give him six months and a longer journey.

Race 2 - Keeneland Gimcrack Stakes (LR) (1000m)

1st - Satin Slipper ($6.5)
2nd - Setsuna ($21) - 0.2 lens
3rd - Fiesta ($13) - 1.2 lens
Then Followed: Now Or Never ($21), Galina ($11), Meryl ($41), Impetuoso ($21), Witherspoon ($4.5 fav), Cortesta ($51), Bold Arial ($6), Greyt Love ($6.5), Zerchois ($13), I Stole Your Love ($101), Knockout Girl ($31), Cap Gris Nez ($101), Dawn Moon ($81) Analysis: There were some good runs here. Satin Slippers deserved the win. Settled back in the field, Hugh Bowman finding clear running aboard the daughter of Pierro as they straightened. The Snowden-trained youngster knuckled down in great style and showed real grit to arrive in time. Runner-up Setsuna sat three wide on a hot tempo and was only caught on the wire – huge debut! Third placed Fiesta arguably could have delivered Chris Waller both two-year-olds races. Slow to begin then checked at the 800m, the I Am Invincible filly was still going to go close to winning but had to steady and switch across heels between the 200-125m. If you'd backed Fiesta – you weren't partying. Galina didn't get a lot of room in the straight – hit line gamely. Bold Arial missed the start then was badly blocked for a run down the straight – total forgive run. Favourite Witherspoon was always going to need luck from the outside gate – she didn't get any. Trapped deep – total forgive.

Money Trail: The outside gate spooked punters with favourite Witherspoon drifting from $4 to $4.60 in the lead-up to the race.

Blackbooker: You could take your pick from a few hard luck runs here and you won't go too far wrong following them, but I'll stick with Fiesta. Physically she still has some furnishing to do and Chris Waller won't hammer her too hard too early.

Race 3 - Schweppes Dulcify Qlty (LR) (1600m)

1st - Ataraxia ($7.5)
2nd - Dissolution ($6) - 0.2 lens
3rd - Sambro ($4 fav) - 0.4 lens
Then Followed: Tangled ($13), Langley ($4.5), Chosen Assassin ($17), Pride Of Darci ($9), Seababe ($26), Spencer ($16), All Too Huiying ($21), Dunatun ($201) Analysis: Michael Walker produced a gem aboard Godolphin's Ataraxia. Landed in the box-seat and got off the fence at the right time. Dissolution was also ridden a treat by Tommy Berry and chased right to the line. Sambro wanted to overdo it outside the lead and Joao Moreira let rip from the 600m – maybe he went too early but I would rather that than wait too long. Tangled was the eye-catcher. Hugh Bowman rode for luck under the hefty impost of 60.5kg and almost got away with it. A slight traffic issue mid-straight halted his momentum though – with clear running he goes close. Clocked the fastest final 600m of the race at 34.22 secs.

Money Trail: Not a lot of action in the final 30 minutes. Ataraxia the only real drifter, easing from $5.50 to $7.50 – but he hadn't been informed. 

My Tip: I was confident the only filly in the race Seababe would give a sight at massive odds. Glen Boss gave her every chance but she couldn't match it with Dissolution when he quickened approaching the turn. Stuck to her task well in the straight though.

Blackbooker: Tangled is the horse to follow. Gave the majority of the field 7.5kg and with a bit more luck in the straight would have gone close to winning. Don't know how much further he wants it but a race like the Carbine Club at Flemington on Derby Day would appear a good one for him.

Race 4 - Ilve Appliances Hill Stakes (G2) (1800m)

1st - Classic Uniform ($7.5)
2nd - Embley ($10) - 0.2 lens
3rd - Mackintosh ($2.75 fav) - 2.7 lens
Then Followed: Maurus ($21), Spectroscope ($6), Shalmaneser ($101), Perfect Rhyme ($6), Sense Of Occasion ($7.5), Havana Cooler ($31)
Analysis: Aggression doesn't only pay dividends at Rosehill. Michael Walker showed intent to find the front aboard Classic Uniform and once he got there – he controlled the race. Accelerating 800m from home he got his rivals off the bit, favourite Mackintosh the first to feel the pressure, laying in badly for Joao Moreira down the straight. That only left the in-form Embley to have a shot, but as hard as he tried – he couldn't get there. Sense Of Occasion was plain – he might not have come up this prep. Spectroscope once again disappointing whilst the surprise packet was Shalmaneser. He wasn't supposed to get anywhere near them in this grade yet closed off with the fastest final 200m of 11.43 secs.

Money Trail: Bit of support for Mackintosh $3.10 into $2.80 and Spectroscope $7 into $6 but no joy there. Classic Uniform was solid at $7.50 whilst backmarkers Havana Cooler $17 to $31 and Maurus $13 to $19 were the drifters.

Blackbooker: Shalmaneser has a Benchmark of 78 yet was contesting a Group II weight-for-age contest and clocked the fastest final furlong. I would like to have something on him in a much easier affair over 2000m.

Race 5 - Flight Stakes (G1) (1600m)

1st - Alizee ($2.88 fav)
2nd - Champagne Cuddles ($3.75) - 2.3 lens
3rd - Cellargirl ($10) - 4.6 lens
Then Followed: One More Honey ($9), Smooth Landing ($101), Luvaluva ($81), I Am Excited ($17), Sweet Deal ($16), Pandemonium ($7), Legal Girl ($31), College Romance ($151) Analysis: College Romance and Luvaluva slapped on the speed here which set the race up perfectly for the favoured duo of Alizee and Champagne Cuddles – both of which were ridden ice cold. Champagne Cuddles got the split at the 300m, just as Glyn Schofield was finding a clear passage aboard Alizee. But the physically superior daughter of Sepoy powered right over the top to score an 'electrifying' win. Cellargirl and One More Honey tried hard but they aren't in the same class as the top two. Pandemonium was expected to lead but as she did last time out – missed the kick.

Money Trail: Punters narrowed down to two chances and they were spot on. Alizee rock solid as a $2.90 favourite with only Champagne Cuddles seriously backed to beat her, firming from $4.20 into $3.80.

Blackbooker: How good is Alizee? I've got to accept she's something special. A final 600m of 33.18 secs was over half-a-second faster than nearest rival Champagne Cuddles. If James Cummings presses on with her this campaign – she'll be competitive in anything.

Race 6 - Santos Coffee Premiere Stakes (G2) (1200m)

1st - In Her Time ($4.75)
2nd - English ($5.5) - 0.2 lens
3rd - Clearly Innocent ($8.5) - 1.2 lens
Then Followed: Takedown ($21), Ball Of Muscle ($15), Chautauqua ($2.75 fav), Kuro ($31), Fell Swoop ($17), Nieta ($21), Pumpkin Pie ($151), Moher ($81) Analysis: The late scratching of The Monstar took some of the pressure out of this sprint. Ball Of Muscle led Takedown with Fell Swoop posted third three deep. In Her Time was a touch slow to jump but improved quickly to box-seat. English was ridden patiently off a wide gate whilst Chautauqua was slow into stride and a clear last to the turn. In Her Time took a split topping the rise, was driven to the lead 200m out and dug deep. Blake Shinn angled English clear at the furlong pole and let rip – but just missed. Clearly Innocent isn't a first-up performer but rocketed through late for third. Chautauqua zoomed home when it all over – a final 200m of 11.03 secs the quickest of the race. English ran the fastest final 600m though at 32.37 secs. That was the fastest 600m split of the day! Money Trail: Punters sided with the grey flash Chautauqua which was rock solid at $2.80. English met with the biggest late move – trimming up from $7 into $5.50. In Her Time rock solid at $4.80.

My Tip: I was extremely confident that Chautauqua would be suited here on a fair track with the speed on up front. But he couldn't keep up at a vital stage. I'm sure there is further improvement heading into The Everest – but he's going to need to find almost three lengths!

Blackbooker: Off this race English would have to be the horse you would want to back heading into The Everest. She's guaranteed a slot and was ridden quietly off a wide gate. If she draws well in the big one she's a huge chance.

Race 7 - Tab Epsom Hcp (G1) (1600m)

1st - Happy Clapper ($2.38 fav)
2nd - Tom Melbourne ($8) - 0.5 lens
3rd - Snitzson ($26) - 3.0 lens
Then Followed: Foxplay ($8), Sound Proposition ($12), Comin' Through ($5), McCreery ($26), Red Excitement ($17), Savile Row ($31), Zanbagh ($31) Analysis: Blake Shinn couldn't have ridden Pat Webster's Happy Clapper any better. It was a pearler of a ride. Utilised the good draw to box-seat in a race which was always going to lack a traditional Epsom pressure-cooker. The gap appeared topping the rise and Shinn didn't hesitate. He was probably left in front earlier than he wanted, but Tom Melbourne struck bother at the 350m before changing course and rattling home, whilst Foxplay had been ridden cold and motored-up late into fourth. She clocked the second quickest final 600m at 33.62 secs. Snitzson surprised grabbing third. Settled midfield and never left the fence under 50.5kg. Comin' Through was expected to settle much closer to the pace but on a day where nothing went right for the 'Magic Man' – so it was again with Comin' Through.

Money Trail: Punters stuck with the popular elect Happy Clapper – firming from $2.45 into $2.40. The only one backed to beat him was Comin' Through which firmed from $7 into $5.
My Tip: I was heavily invested on Happy Clapper and he didn't let me down. Thanks buddy.

Blackbooker: Tom Melbourne…no I am just kidding. Actually I am not. He arguably should have won the race. Clocked the quickest closing splits of the race at 33.45/11.13. Chris Waller has him flying and I am confident he can win a Group I ridden quietly when he gets the breaks.

Race 8 - The Metropolitan (G1) (2400m)

1st - Foundry ($10)
2nd - Big Duke ($5) - 0.5 lens
3rd - Chocante ($21) - 1.8 lens
Then Followed: Who Shot Thebarman ($16), Broadside ($6.5), Libran ($8.5), Antonio Giuseppe ($6.5), My Diamantine ($101), Life Less Ordinary ($4.25 fav), Destiny's Kiss ($41) Analysis: The race was made a genuine staying test by leader Broadside and in the end the best three stayers filled the trifecta. Foundry was given a gun one out, one back ride by Michael Dee whilst Big Duke took the short-cuts along the fence for Brenton Avdulla. Chocante was in the right spot to win the race if good enough. No excuses for the beaten brigade. Big Duke at 33.69/11.43 bagged the quickest final sectionals but I'm not convinced he was ever going to get past Foundry. Money Trail: No love for Foundry which drifted from $7.50 to $10. Punters stuck solid with Life Less Ordinary $4.20. Big Duke was backed from $6.50 into $5.

Blackbooker: Big Duke appears the obvious one but I have a feeling Foundry will improve off that win and is more likely to stay a longer trip. I'll stick with the winner.

Race 9 - Snitzel Benchmark 90 Handicap (1200m)

1st - Isorich ($21)
2nd - I Thought So ($4.75) - 0.2 lens
3rd - Tango Rain ($4.25 fav) - 0.4 lens
Then Followed: Improvement ($8.5), Grunderzeit ($21), Echo Effect ($10), Dagny ($7), Ziggy Willie ($41), Spright ($6.5), Gamblestown ($81), Three Sheets ($31) Analysis: Less than two lengths covered the first eight across the line but they all appeared to have their chance in the straight. Isorich is under-estimated but his racing style makes him an attractive betting proposition. He settles close-up and fights hard. That's a great combination to have. When you can come home in 33.42 secs from an on pace position – you're tough to get past. Echo Effect improved – he hit the line stronger than anything with closing splits of 33.00/11.40. Tango Rain brave, I Thought So had his chance and only just missed.

Money Trail: Punters once again let Isorich slip under their guards drifting from $16 to $21. Tango Rain sent out favourite at $4.20 after opening at $4 whilst the original favourite I Thought So got the wobbles – drifting from $3.70 to $4.80.

Blackbooker: I suspect Isorich won't be sent out at such big odds next time but you just never know. I do suspect if he meets the runner-up and third-placed finisher he will start at much bigger odds than them and that doesn't make sense. So why not? I'll blackbook Isorich.
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