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Cameron Happ analyses the entire meeting from Caulfield Saturday

Cameron Happ - Sunday September 24

Cameron Happ takes an in-depth look at how your money performed and pinpoints some future winners from Caulfield in a race-by-race analysis of Naturalism Stakes day.

Harlem blitzed his rivals in the Foundation Cup aka Naturalism Stakes. Photo: Darryl Sherer

Race 1 - Aquis Farm Supports Pinchapoo Plate (1400m)

1st - Leather'n'lace ($4.5)
2nd - Uptown Gal ($101) - 2.3 lens
3rd - Banish ($13) - 2.5 lens
Then Followed: I'll Have A Bit ($31), Aloisia ($5.5), Blondie ($5.5), Pure Scot ($21), Sanadaat ($4 fav), Pageantry ($41), Undoubtable Miss ($31), Joyfilly Ours ($12)

Analysis: Super win by the progressive Leather'n'lace to remain unbeaten this prep. She rolled along in front facing the strong wind down the side and still had a big kick to never look in any doubt. The main story out of the race was Aloisia . She's headed to staying races so no shock to see her left flat footed as they straightened, she was clearly going to charge into second place if not badly held up to the 50 metres, she did well to get close. Pure Scot ran home in the fastest last two sections of the race, if she can find a way to stay in touch she can win a race shortly.

Money Trail: Leather'n'lace had support before easing to her opening quote of $4.40. Sanadaat held favouritism despite being $3.50 out to $3.90. They all just held their spots in a moderate betting race.

Blackbooker: Your eyes are painted on if you didn't see the run of Aloisia knowing that she's going onto much longer races. She may need one more but if she can get into a race with a solid tempo over a mile and then further, she'll be winning in her next few starts.

Race 2 - Mirabel Foundation Hcp (1600m)

1st - Cliff's Edge ($4.5)
2nd - Sunquest ($8.5) - 0.8 lens
3rd - Pres De Toi ($61) - 1.0 lens
Then Followed: Angelic Spirit ($17), Eshtiraak ($2.75 fav), Watchmespin ($21), Give ($31), Evil Cry ($21), Nistaan ($8.50), Il Divo ($21), Padraig ($12)

Analysis: A text book ride from John Allen to give Cliff's Edge all the favours in a soft run race and he ran the mile out strong to get the job done. The backmarkers never really had a chance so for Sunquest to cut the corner and hit the line so hard is a good sign for him moving forward. Forgive Eshtiraak , he did well to get as close as he did, he got shuffled back mid race and had no luck for the first half of the straight. Evil Cry is another that can be forgiven, he only saw daylight when it was all over. Tread warily with the form as there can be some form reversals out of the race.

Money Trail: Similar to the first they all just held their spots. Cliff's Edge was $4.20 to $4.40. Eshtiraak had some support before easing to his opening quote of $2.80. Nistaan , Sunquest and Padraig had small support late.

Blackbooker: The slow pace makes it a tricky race to be confident out of but the maiden Pres De Toi can be winning a race shortly. He did a bit of work to be on pace and fought on well. If they put him in the right race next start he must go close.

Race 3 - Lojac Civil (Bm78) Handicap (1800m)

1st - Anaheim ($9)
2nd - Sin To Win ($2.88 fav) - 0.5 lens
3rd - Goodwill ($6.5) - 0.7 lens
Then Followed: Sherlock Holmes ($17), Tuff Bickie ($21), Meet And Greet ($11), Table Of Wisdom ($8), Clairvaux ($81), Domino Vitale ($21), Lycurgus ($19), Trendsetter ($71), Skulduggery ($21), FF Thunder Teddington ($18)

Analysis: There was a few that were all but put out of the race at the 1400 metre mark. Thunder Teddington was eased out of the race with both Lycurgus and Skulduggery heavily checked to take no competitive part. Forget these three went around. The leaders hit the brakes mid race to set those beyond midfield a huge task and it was left to Anaheim that had had a dream run in fourth spot to run down the favourite Sin To Win . Sin To Win fought on well. Would love to see him ridden a touch quieter to finish off and Goodwill was the best of those off the pace. He ran the fastest of each sectional from the 1000m to the finish line.

Money Trail: Goodwill $7.50 to $6 and Table Of Wisdom $12 into $8 had the best support. Anaheim was easy, $7 out to $9 as was Sin To Win $2.30 out to $2.90 but he was too short early.

Blackbooker: Let's hope a few drop off Lycurgus so we get a price next start. He ran a great race fresh so we know he's come back well and he's always better as he gets deeper into a prep. Ready for 2000 metres and beyond, follow him for his next few starts.

Race 4 - Fight Cancer Foundation Plate (1100m)

1st - Bandipur ($5)
2nd - I Did It Again ($2.25 fav) - 0.1 lens
3rd - King's Authority ($16) - 0.2 lens
Then Followed: Arctic Angel ($26), Lakhoni ($51), Grandioso ($67), From The Clouds ($31), Counterplay ($13), Superhard ($4.80), Tycoon Dancer ($31)

Analysis: Turned out a messy race with a number of hard luck stories. The favourite I Did It Again faced the strong breeze four deep the entire journey and still looked the likely winner at the 200 metres. Nikita Beriman dropped her whip at the 150 metres, got all off balance trying to slap him down the neck and it wasn't until she switched back to hands and heels that he responded to go close. Bandipur had a perfect run with cover to the turn. He's just a good honest horse that always gives himself a chance. King's Authority was the sectional star of the race, still last at the 300m metres he's flashed home. Lakhoni , Superhard , Counterplay and Grandioso all had little luck at various stages in the straight with the stewards report a must read.

Money Trail: Punters got this race right with Banidpur $6.50 into $5 and the favourite I Did It Again $2.50 into $2.20 clearly the best backed. Superhard was slightly easy $4.40 out to $4.80.

Blackbooker: Lakhoni probably should have fought out the finish. Held up from the 400 metres, he pulled his way up onto the place getters heels all but falling at the 50m. Coming here straight off a debut maiden win, he's got a stack of upside as he rises in trip. Might be worth a Derby ticket at huge odds.

Race 5 - Ladbrokes National Jockey Trust Open Handicap (1400m)

1st - Sircconi ($12)
2nd - Wyndspelle ($21) - 0.4 lens
3rd - So Si Bon ($5) - 0.5 lens
Then Followed: Duke Of Brunswick ($6), Saint Valorem ($26), Pay Up Bro ($41), Mighty Like ($17), War Legend ($21), Ballet Master ($17), Revolving Door ($3.60 fav), He Or She ($17), Here To There ($11)

 


Analysis: Huge form turnaround Sirconi 2nd-up but it was expected off the back of a good trial win. He got an outstanding front running ride from the under-rated Linda Meech. She stacked them up once she found the front, did just enough to hold the front when moves came down the back and left plenty in the tank to hold off the late closers. So Si Bon did what he always does, he couldn't stay with them early but did rattled home out wide along with Wyndspelle . They were the clear sectional stars of the race. Saint Valorem never saw daylight along the rails and Duke Of Brunswick also had a few excuses behind the leaders. The favourite Revolving Door appears to have had enough for this prep.

Money Trail: This was a good go at odds Sirconi $21 into $12. Revolving Door was well backed into favourite $4.40 to $3.60 and So Si Bon was unwanted $3.70 out to $5. Duke Of Brunswick was also easy $4.60 to to $6.

Blackbooker: Wyndspelle is a Group II winner over 2000m in New Zealand so to flash home and gets so close in this reads outstandingly moving forward. Perfectly placed over a mile next start, jump on now and stick with him for his next few starts.

Race 6 - Testa Rossa Stakes (1200m) - Listed

1st - Bons Away ($11)
2nd - Brave Smash ($1.65 fav) - 0.2 lens
3rd - Fast 'n' Rocking ($51) - 2.2 lens
Then Followed: Malibu Style ($21), Keen Array ($8.5), Royal Tudor ($21), El Divino ($10), Rocket Tommy ($61), Well Sprung ($21), Most Important ($31)

Analysis: Finally a race run at a good solid tempo and the back markers with cover took advantage. Bons Away was given a peach from Meech. She stayed with cover back beyond midfield until improving out deep on the turn, he went quick to take the lead at the 150m and charged through the line to hold the favourite. Brave Smash was slightly held up before being ripped sideways off heels at the 350m, but he had all day to get past Bons Away who was coming off a BM 70 at Seymour at his previous start. Hard to see him getting warm in The Everest off this run. Fast 'N' Rocking hit the line as he always does and the rest had no excuse.

Money Trail: Was pretty much all about one horse with Brave Smash hammered from $1.85 into $1.65. The winner Bons Away had some specking $12 back to his opening quote of $11. The rest were easy.

Blackbooker: Not a race I really want to follow anything out of going forward behind Bons Away and Brave Smash . They'll both be competitive in whatever they run in so long as they're kept in the right grade.

Race 7 - East Malvern MRC Foundation (2000m) – Group 3

1st - Harlem ($16)
2nd - Samovare ($7.5) - 3.3 lens
3rd - Stampede ($4.5 fav) - 3.4 lens
Then Followed: Amelie's Star ($4.5 fav), Abbey Marie ($6), Sir Isaac Newton ($41), Tally ($21), Harlow Gold ($21), Vengeur Masque ($61), Big Duke ($11), Magnapal ($81), Second Bullet ($51), Articus ($21), Settler's Stone ($151), Gallante ($101)

Analysis: The comparisons between Harlem's win and Jameka last year are uncanny. They both got perfect runs along the rails, saved ground to just off pace on the turn and put the race away inside the 200m, both winning by big margins. If anything, Harlem was more impressive carrying more weight in near track record time. Stampede was a brave run. He did all the work into the breeze and still held out all but the first two. Amelie's Star lost no admirers on her way to longer races, she was the sectional star of the race coming eight deep from back near last on the turn. Abbey Marie did enough but anything behind them will need to find something easier to be winning a race.

Money Trail: No support at all Harlem $11 out to $16. Amelie's Star was best backed $5 into $4.40 equal favourite. Stampede was well backed early before easing $3.70 out to $4.40. Some late specking Samovare $8 into $7.50 after being easy early.

Blackbooker: Doubt any of these can turn the tables on Harlem but if Amelie's Star can drop her sights a touch to something like the Moonee Valley Cup she'd take some beating. Right at the top of her form and crying out for ground, she'll run well in whatever they put her in.

Race 8 - Ladbrokes Odds Boost Stakes (1200m) – Group 3

1st - Savanna Amour ($15)
2nd - Legless Veuve ($16) - 0.2 lens
3rd - Ravi ($2.90 fav) - 0.3 lens
Then Followed: Missrock ($4.5), Prompt Response ($11), Now Or Later ($21), Ellicazoom ($21), Fuhryk ($10), Deja Blue ($61), I Am Zelady ($19), Selita ($81), Miss Cover Girl ($20), Kenedna ($61)

Analysis: If you backed Ravi you probably won't want to watch the replay again, she was as good a thing beaten as you will ever see. Shuffled out the back, racing tight before the turn and badly held up for 50m straightening. For her to weave a passage and launch to get within half a length was an amazing effort. Legless Veuve ran her usual honest race fresh. Held up for the first half of the race, she flashed home in sectionals only bettered by Ravi. While she may have been lucky Savanna Amour did do all the work in front facing the strong wind, she found plenty and continues to thrive. Don't drop off Missrock , she made a long wide run into the wind and did keep finding. Both Now Or Later and Ellicazoom did enough resuming.

Money Trail: Savanna Amour had some support early into $13 before easing back to her opening quote of $15. Ravi eased to $3.20 before being well backed into $2.90(fav). Missrock was solid only $4.20 out to $4.60 but it was all about the luckless Ravi.

Blackbooker: Doubt anyone else will find Kenedna . She couldn't get anywhere near them in the run to be tailed out on the turn but the jock stuck with her, and she did find the line running the fourth fastest last 200m in the race. She'll go around huge odds next start and can take a big step.

Race 9 – Inglis Supports RDA Victoria Plate (Bm90) (1400m)

1st - Merriest ($5)
2nd - Petition ($4.5) - 0.2 lens
3rd - Princess Of Queens ($9) - 0.7 lens
Then Followed: Jamaican Rain ($2.75 fav), Sebring Dream ($17), Rocket Commander ($21), Vital Importance ($41), Baby Don't Cry ($41), Minnie Downs ($91), Chatuchak ($16), Magnanime ($101)

Analysis: Taylor Marshall's claim and a well rated ride in front on Merriest was the difference in a tight finish. Challenged in front but he didn't panic, she found a good kick at the 300m and despite being out of gas on the line found enough to just hold on. Petition is right on track for some stronger races over the next few months. She had no excuse with a perfect run but did steam through the line and wins in one more stride. Princess Of Queens ran right at her top and there was some excuses for Jamaican Rain . She just got into a tight spot early which had her easing back further than expected but her closing sectionals equalled Petition.

Money Trail: Merriest had support $5.50 into $5. The favourite Jamaican Rain was easy early $2.30 out to $2.80 before late support to $2.70. Petition was solid only $4.20 out to $4.60 and apart from small specking at odds they dominated the race.

Blackbooker: There's a race for Sebring Dream over the carnival so long as they don't aim too high. She gave away a fitness edge to the first four across the line but did work home nicely out wide. Kept around the mile, she can win one in similar grade.

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