The Group I VRC Victoria Derby is worth a whopping $2 million making it the richest race for spring three year-olds in the country and the testing trip of 2500m means not always the best horse wins, but rather the horse that stays best on the day.
2500 metres is a long way and the gruelling last furlong frequently undoes some of the better horses, leaving the grinders to fight out the finish so let’s take a look at the pedigrees in the search for roughies to challenge the favourites.
1/ Forgot You(NZ) (C Savabeel x Simply You, by O’Reilly)- Top form for the race winning G2 Stutt Stakes and sixth in G1 Caulfield Guineas before winning G2 Moonee Valley Vase (2040m).
By champion NZ sire Savabeel, whose stock excel in Classic races and is bred on the same cross as six G1 winners including Mo’Unga and NZ Oaks winners Savaria and Amarelinha. That said, his female family is predominantly about speed with his grand-dam being Group I sprinter Glamour Puss with other star G1 family members Vision and Power and Steps in Time finding their best form around a mile.
2/ Tutukaka (NZ) (C Tavistock x Meleka Belle, by Iffraaj (GB) – Flagged his staying credentials with a strong last start win in the Listed Geelong Classic (2200m).
By an outstanding classic sire in Tavistock and is a half-brother to NZ Horse of the Year Melody Belle, who won 19 races up to 2050m. His dam only won over 1200m, but grand-dam Empress Belle is by Sir Tristram (IRE) and won up to 2100m so am confident he can be there fighting out the finish.
3/ Alegron (C Teofilo (IRE) x Alegria , by Medaglia D’Oro (USA) – One win from eight starts, but was good last start third in G1 Spring Champion Stakes (2000m).
Teofilo is a versatile sire that got the Melbourne Cup winner last year in Twilight Payment, so he’s a big plus and dam was Group placed in several 2400m races. Female family is better known for it’s sprinter milers, but Alegron does have a double cross of Sadler’s Wells that may tilt the scales towards him being a stayer.
4/ Gunstock (NZ) (Tavistock x Zeranti, by Zabeel) – Lightly raced with two wins and a third from just four starts, but very impressive last start winning G3 Caulfield Classic (2000m).
Tavistock x Zabeel cross is super successful in producing Classic horses and Gunstock looks the goods. He is a brother to G2 placed The Irishman and while his overall female family is about speed with triple G1 winning sprinter Sea Siren the star performer there is a G3 winner over 2500m in Chabaud lurking in his pedigree giving me optimism he can also run the trip.
From the first crop of Maurice, who was a superstar up to 2000m and his Japanese progeny include several stakes-placed horses that have won at 2000m, but only one beyond that. His grand-dam is champion sprinting filly Alinghi, so female family is not going to be much help in this assignment.
6/ Character (C Teofilo (IRE) x Monogram, by Medgalia D’Oro (USA) – One win at 1600m from 10 starts and was good last start second in Geelong Classic.
Bred on same cross as Alegron and dam won up to 2100m and comes from an international family with his grand-dam a full sister to European Horse of the Year Fantastic Light, so he has some high class staying blood there to suggest he’ll be there when it counts.
7/ Jungle Magnate (NZ) (G Tarzino x The Love of Money, by Casino Prince) - One win at 1400m from four starts, but placed last two in Listed Hill Smith Stakes (1800m) and Moonee Valley Vase.
From first crop of Victoria Derby winner Tarzino (by Tavistock) and dam is a daughter of a Brazilian G1 winner up to 2000m with plenty of top class South American Black Type on the page. No reason not to be optimistic.
8/ Commander Harry (NZ) (G Reliable Man (GB) x Our Josephina, by Zabeel) – One win at 1450m from four starts, but caught the eye with tenacious second in Moonee Valley Vase.
By proven Classic sire Reliable Man and dam won up to 2200m and is by champion sire Zabeel. She is also a sister to the dam of last year’s Victoria Debry winner Johnny Get Angry, so this pedigree ticks all the boxes.
9/ Hitotsu (C Maurice (Jpn) x Love is Fickle, by Redoute’s Choice) – One win from five starts over 1350m at Donald where he beat Commander Harry and was last start fifth in G1 Caulfield Guineas (1600m), so facing a huge jump in distance.
Second runner in the race for Maurice and dam is an unraced daughter of G2 Avondale Cup (2200m) winner She’s a Meanie. Other stakes-winners on the page are sprinters, but they are all by noted speed sires, so Hitotsu might break that trend.
10 / Ceberus (C Dundeel x Scarlet Moretta, by Fastnet Rock) – Only three starts for a win and two placings, the win coming last start in Listed SAJC Hill Smith Stakes (1800m).
By Classic sire Dundeel from a daughter of Fastnet Rock, who has sired his share of Classic horses. Dam only won up to 1550m, but comes from a deep international family packed with G1 winners, many of them over a middle distance.
11/ Gundec (C Kermadec x Sunup, by Fantastic Light (USA) – Won Flemington Derby Trial (1800m) and last start sixth in Caulfield Classic.
By Teofilo’s outstanding miler Kermadec, best known as the sire of top class staying mare Montefilia and dam by the great champion Fantastic Light, who we’ve already mentioned. His dam only won over 1300m, but her grand-dam Never Over was a very tough stakes-placed stayer that won up to 2600m and was by Sydney Cup winner Double Century, so Gundec definitely gets a tick for pedigree.
12/ Clyde (G Maurice (Jpn) x Vicky, by Encosta de Lago) – Two wins from seven starts and last start winner at Scone over 2200m after failing in G1 Spring Champion.
Third runner in the race for Maurice. Half-brother to Hong Kong Derby (2000m) winner Ping Hai Star and G2 winner Neo. Dam is unraced three-quarter sister to G1 winner Delago Brom and G2 winner Brom Felinity, the dam of 2021 G1 Canadian International (2400m) winner Walton Street. Seems to have the stamina, but does he have the class?
13/ El Rocko (C Fastnet Rock x Butters (USA), by El Prado) – Stakes-placed at two, but maiden after eight starts and last start sixth Moonee Valley Vase.
Three-quarter brother to GI winner Foxplay, successful up to 1600m, and dam has left three more winners, but none over longer than 1400m. Dam was a stakes-winner in US at 1200m and comes from a great Black Type family, but nothing to suggest 2500m will be ideal.
14/ Raging Bull (G Bull Point x Sunday Sinners, by Danbird) – One win at 2100m from five starts and last start sixth in G1 Spring Champion.
By a sprinting son of Fastnet Rock in Bull Point, but dam is an unraced half-sister to G3 Hobart Cup (2400m) winner Hurdy Gurdy Man and third dam is a 2450m winner by outstanding staying sire Zamazaan (GB). Not hopeless, although barrier not going to be any help.
15/ Cheerful Moment (NZ) (Mongolian Khan x Baralo’Kash, by Kashani (USA) – One win at 1600m from nine starts and last start tenth in Moonee Valley Vase.
Sire Mongolian Khan won two Derbies and Caulfield Cup. Unraced dam has had five winners up to 1800m, but the female family is Australian speed featuring Golden Slipper winners Merlene and Capitalist, also VRC Oaks winner Dear Demi…. But I don’t think that will help his cause.
16/ Teewaters (G Dundeel x My Girl Lil, by Not a Single Doubt) – One win at 2000m from five starts and last start third in Caulfield Classic.
Second runner for Dundeel and is from an unraced three-quarter sister to stakes-winners My Sister Lil and Ygritte, the former successful at 1800m. Third dam Tycoon Lil was NZ Horse of the Year and won the NZ Oaks, so she’s a big plus and interestingly she is also the third dam of VRC Oaks contender Daisies.
17E/ Zoumon (G Zoustar x Monblue (GB), by Monsun) – Two wins from three starts, last start win at Moe over 2050m.
By a sprinting sire in Zoustar, that has never had an Australian stakes-winner beyond 1600m, but his dam is a stakes-winning daughter of champion staying sire Monsun from a European family steeped in stakes-winning stayers, so you have to think he’s thrown to that side of his pedigree.
18E/ Sebastian the Fox (G Foxwedge x High Above, by High Chaparral (IRE) – One win over 1400m from six starts and last start fourth in Caulfield Classic.
Sire Foxwedge not noted for stayers. Dam won over 1600m and is by Classic sire High Chaparral and next dam is a half-sister by Zabeel to Victoria Derby winner Prized Icon, so that’s a positive for this assignment.
19E/ King of Pharaohs (C American Pharoah (USA) x Miss With Attitude, by Galileo (IRE) – One win at 1600m from five starts and last start fourth in the Geelong Classic.
By the US Triple crown winner American Pharoah, who won up to 2400m. Dam is G2 placed winner at 1600m by champion sire Galileo from a European female family nurtured by the Aga Khan, so he’s definitely bred to be Derby material.
20E/ Spirit of Gaylard (C Puissance de Lune (IRE) x White Dove, by High Chaparral (IRE) – One win at 1500m from three starts and last start fifth in the Moonee Valley Vase.
Sire Puissance de Lune won up to 2600m and dam won at 2000m and is by great Classic sire High Chaparral with next dam by another great sire in Street Cry (IRE) with third dam L’Extra Honor a stakes-winner at 2400m. Has the right pedigree and not hopeless if he gets a run.
Selections
1/ Gunstock
2/ Tutukaka
3/ Commander Harry
4/ Jungle Magnate
Roughie / Gundec
