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Cameron Happ analyses the entire Makybe Diva Stakes meeting from Flemington Races 1-5

Cameron Happ - Monday September 18
PART 1: Cameron Happ takes an in-depth look at how your money performed and pinpoints some future winners from Flemington in a race-by-race analysis of the first five races on Makybe Diva Stakes day.
Fox Swift proved too good in the opening race of the day. Photo: Darryl Sherer
Race 1 – Cap D'Antibes Stakes (1100m) - Listed

1st – Fox Swift ($18)
2nd – Split Lip ($19) – short neck
3rd – Luqyaa ($26) – ¾ length
Then followed: True Excelsior ($18), Mintha ($13), Arctic Angel ($21), Elle Gagne ($19), Jorda ($2.70 fav), Pageantry ($51), Ploverset ($14), Moet Rose ($16), Miss Vixen ($41), Roomooz ($3.70)

Analysis: Looked a race with strong speed on paper but they quickly found their spots and only set an even tempo through the middle stages. The winner Fox Swift fell straight onto the leaders back, took over at the 200 metres and fought hard to just hold on. There were three strong closers out in the centre of the track with Split Lip and Luqyaa getting into the placings and the sectional star of the race in Mintha that was held up from the 400 to the 300 metres easing to the outside. The favourite Jorda sat just off the even speed but had no answer when they quickened and may be better back around a turn. She did have a slow recovery so may have had a slight excuse. Second favourite Roomooz was disappointing over the last 200m.

Money Trail: Most of the betting revolved around the favourites. Roomooz was best backed $4 into $3.70. The favourite was slightly easy $2.30 out to $2.70 late but still had plenty of admirers. The placegetters basically held their spots in the market.

Blackbooker: Mintha was sent out huge odds but may now be ready to live up to her good breeding. She went back to last, was held up easing to the outside at the 300m and rattled home to only be beaten just over a length. Still a maiden and suited up in trip, there's sure to be a race for her shortly.

Race 2 – Pin & Win Plate (1400m) - Listed

1st – Royal Symphony ($2 fav)
2nd – Éclair Sunshine ($61) – Head
3rd – Sebfire ($18) – 1½ lens
Then followed: Hulme ($61), Showtime ($9.50), Hualalai ($14), Mighty Boss ($31), Cliff's Edge ($14), Lone Eagle ($31), Conquest ($81), Ouyang Feng ($151), Toga Picta ($14), Metson ($31), Muraahib ($10), Garrard ($41)

Analysis: This was set to be the race that would tell us whether Royal Symphony was deserving of Caulfield Guineas favouritism and he certainly put any doubters to bed. No early speed and then stitched up and bumped several times inside the 1200m, which had him fall back along the rail beyond midfield in a race with just a good even tempo. Dwayne Dunn would have been in panic mode on his wife's horse as he was badly held up everywhere he went until finally finding daylight inside the 150 metres where he flew to go clear on the line for an outstanding win. The runner-up Éclair Sunshine got a peach of a ride to kick clear at the 100 metres and looked home until swamped on the line. Sebfire and Hulme were the best of the backmarkers, especially Hulme that was held up at the 300 metres before easing wider to hit the line hard in the best sectionals outside of the first two. Hualalai may have had an excuse pulling up lame.

Money Trail: The favourite Royal Symphony was clearly the best backed runner $2.20 into $2. Sebfire had support at big odds $41 into $18 and Muraahib the early second favourite was unwanted $6.50 out to $10 and ran accordingly.

Blackbooker: Apart from the obvious, the Mick Price trained Hulme was a clear horse to follow. Resuming at only his second career start off a Wodonga maiden win, he did a big job to steam home late after being held-up. Eligible for much easier races, he'll be winning shortly as he rises in trip.

Race 3 – The Sofitel (1400m) - Listed

1st – Theanswermyfriend ($3.20 fav)
2nd – Mr Sneaky ($3.50) – 1¾ lens
3rd – Count Da Vinci ($71) – 1¼ lens
Then followed: Dodging Bullets ($61), Chocolate Holic ($7), Snitzson ($10), Dibayani ($41), Violate ($20), Mio Dio ($31), Pure Pride ($26), Radipole ($20), Odeon ($20), Great Esteem ($101), Magicool ($301) Analysis: All honours with the winner Theanswermyfriend in this race. He did a bit of work early to cross from the wide gate and then commenced to race keenly when Williams attempted to slow the tempo from the 1000 metres towards the turn. Without being asked for much he put three lengths on them inside the 400 metres and never looked in any doubt despite tiring a touch late. Mr Sneaky had a good run three deep with cover and looked to be travelling in the early part of the straight. He was no match for the winner but did keep closing to the line. Snitzson didn't get a lot of room at a crucial stage, he still worked home in the fastest last 200 metres, looking for a mile and possibly further. Chocolate Holic had no luck facing the breeze three deep the trip, he kept working to the line and Violate was ok from too far back.

Money Trail: The punters got this race 100 percent right with Theanswermyfriend $3.40 into $3.20 and the runner-up Mr Sneaky $3.20 out to $3.50 clearly the two best backed runners. Violate and Radipole were both specked $31 into $20 and there was no support for Snitzson $7.50 out to $10.

Blackbooker: Mr Sneaky looks the one to follow. He'd previously failed to fill a place second-up from two attempts so we can expect him to only go forward off todays run. With a stack of options over this sort of trip and out to the mile, he'll be winning again soon.

Race 4 – Bobbie Lewis Quality (1200m) – Group 2

1st – Redkirk Warrior ($4 fav)
2nd – Scales Of Justice ($4.80) – 2½ lens
3rd – Land Of Plenty ($20) – ¾ len
Then followed: Voodoo Lad ($4.20), Attention ($26), Lucky Hussler ($26), Japonisme ($15), So Si Bon ($8), Lizard Island ($201), Burning Front ($41), Savile Row ($10), Saracino ($51)

Analysis: This panned out exactly as it looked on paper. The lack of any real speed allowed Redkirk Warrior to sit right on the pace alongside Attention and Saracino . So Si Bon raced much closer and V oodoo Lad was a bit keen back closer to the inside just two lengths off the pace. Bayliss let Redkirk Warrior have his head at the 350 metres where he quickened and put two lengths on the field and he powered away for a dominant win confirming his status as an Everest contender. The runner-up Scales Of Justice loomed out wide before ducking out sharply twice and then laying in badly, he still found the line strong but was lost at his first go up the straight. Land Of Plenty was the sectional star of the race outside the winner. He charged home from beyond midfield against the tempo and Voodoo Lad kept on ok in a race that didn't suit.

Money Trail: Redkirk Warrior just held his spot in the market with some support $4.20 into $4 late. Similar for Scales Of Justice , he opened tight in the market at $5 firming to $4.80. Land Of Plenty had specking $41 into $20 and Voodoo Lad had supporters $4.80 into $4.2. So Si Bon was unwanted and ran accordingly $5 out to $8.

Blackbooker: Scales Of Justice is clearly the one to follow going forward. He got completely lost up the straight and still ran a huge race. Much better suited back around a bend, he'll take a stack of beating from now on as he rises in trip towards the Toorak.

Race 5 – Danehill Stakes (1200m) – Group 2

1st – Catchy ($3.60 fav)
2nd – Jukebox ($8.50) – ¾ len
3rd – Booker ($6.50) – head
Then followed: Taking Aim ($31), Al Passem ($101), Esperance ($6.50), Azazel ($11), Summer Passage ($9.50), Overshare ($16), Plutocracy ($17), Limestone ($15)

Analysis: Promised to be a great clash between the colts and fillies and it didn't let us down. Booker took the box seat off just an even tempo with Jukebox midfield back closer to the inside and Catchy also midfield out in the centre of the track with cover. Jukebox pulled his way to the front inside the 400 metres with Catchy just starting to go through her gears. Looked like being a tight finish until Catchy showed her superiority drawing clear over the last 50m. Jukebox and Booker lost no admirers fighting on strong and Taking Aim was the eye catcher behind them running the fastest last split of the race. Limestone was the other story out of the race. She wasn't going to be far away before clipping heels and falling at around the 30 metre mark. Overshare was also a sufferer of a heavy check in this incident. The rest didn't finish too far behind for easier races, with the exception of Plutocracy which disappointed.

Money Trail: Catchy was easy initially at short odds before having late support $3.70 into $3.60. Jukebox was unwanted $6 out to $9 before small support late into $8.50. Booker held her spot at $6.50 and Esperance was only slightly easy $5.50 to $6.50. Azazel was probably best backed of those at odds $18 into $11.

Blackbooker: If they lower their sights back to fillies grade with Booker she's ready to win a race. Both runs this preparation have been top shelf and her racing pattern will always see her competitive. There's sure to be a race for her if they can avoid Catchy.
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