The Group I ATC Australian Derby (2400m) at Royal Randwick this Saturday is the Blue Riband every classic three year-old in Australasia would like to win and a full field of 16 will do battle for $2million in prizemoney.
1/ Lion’s Roar (NZ) (3c Contributer (IRE) x Minnaleo, by Black Minnaloushe (USA) - Won the G1 Randwick Guineas (1600m) and second in G1 Spring Champion Stakes (2000m), last start fourth in G1 Rosehill Guineas.
Effective up to 2000m and has plenty of class. His sire also effective up to 2000m and is a son of Epsom Derby winner High Chaparral, while dam won up to 1800m and is a daughter of G1 Avondale Cup winner The Mighty Lions. He’s going to be in it for a long way, but ultimately 2000m may well be his pet trip.
2/ Rocket Spade (3c Fastnet Rock x Affairoftheheart, by Fusaichi Pegasus (USA) – Already proven at the trip winning the G1 New Zealand Derby.
Fastnet Rock has left six classic winners and he has staying blood through his female pedigree, his dam stakes-placed to 2100m and a half-sister to Champion NZ Middle Distance Horse and two time G1 winner Soriano.
3/ Sky Lab (3g Real Impact (Jpn) x Gold Mission, by Flying Spur) – Close second in G1 Rosehill Guineas (2000m) and has been very consistent coming through the grades.
From first crop of G1 miler Real Impact, but he’s by Sunday Silence’s champion son Deep Impact, who is renowned for producing classic horses. Dam was unraced, but her dam by Grand Lodge had three starts in staying races for a placing in the UK and the third dam by Riverman won over 2000m. It’s not obviously a staying pedigree, but you can make a case for it.
4/ Milford (NZ) (3c Savabeel x Etiquette, by O’Reilly) – Winner at 2100m and close second in the New Zealand Derby to Rocket Spade, then did plenty wrong at first Aussie run in Rosehill Guineas.
By champion sire Savabeel noted for classic horses and dam is a sister to dual Doncaster winner Sacred Falls. Bred on very successful Savabeel x O’Reilly nick that has produced current G1 winners Mo’Unga (Rosehill Guineas) and Amarelinha (NZ Oaks). Nothing not to like apart from his wayward behaviour last start.
5/ The Frontman (NZ) (3c Makfi (GB) x Imposingly, by Zabeel )- Close third in NZ Derby at his fourth start and then average eighth in G2 Tulloch Stakes (2000m).
Full brother to G1 Australian Oaks winner Bonneval from an exceptional producer that has left an impressive five stakes-winners, all of them in middle distance type races and further back in the family are G1 staying stars Champagne and St Reims. Champion jockey, champion trainers, a good gate and a champion pedigree make me think The Frontman is over the odds.
6/ Yaletown (3g Vancouver x Marianne, by Darci Brahma) – Two wins from four starts and led all the way to win G2 Tulloch Stakes.
7/ Young Werther (NZ) (3g Tavistock x Romantic Time, by Fastnet Rock) – Third in Victoria Derby last spring and most recent placed in Rosehill Guineas and G2 MVRC Alister Clarke Stakes (2040m) ..
By proven source of classic horses Tavistock from an Australian bred winner at 1250m that is a half-sister to Silver Slipper winner Amelia’s Dream from speedy SW Shalt Not. The immediate female family is about speed, but further back we have a great stayer in Grand Zulu, so on what he’s done so far you have to think he’s a stayer.
8/ Khoekhoe (3c Turffontein x Walvis Bay , by Cape Cross (IRE) – Stakes-winner at Flemington over 1800m in spring and last start sixth in Rosehill Guineas.
By a sprinter miler that has never produced a stakes-winner beyond 2000m and nothing in his female family suggests Khoekhoe will be changing that on Saturday.
9/ Prompt Prodigy (NZ) (3c More Than Ready (USA) x Allez Wonder, by Redoute’s Choice ) – Consistent in much easier grade and then ran really well when hard chasing second in G2 Tulloch at first try at 2000m.
He’s a full brother to speedy juvenile stakes-winner Koowerup, but has obviously thrown a bit more to his female family as his dam Allez Wonder is a G1 winning miler that won up to 2000m and her dam is 3200m G2 Perth Cup winner Lunar Tudor. It’s a versatile female family and More Than Ready can get a classic winner, can’t overlook pedigree of trainer either!
10/ Explosive Jack (NZ) (3c Jakkalberry (IRE) x Extra Explosive, by Ekraar (USA)- Won the Tasmanian Derby (2200m) and last start second in St Leger Trial (2200m) at Bendigo.
By a G1 winning long distance stayer and while his dam is a stakes-winning sprinter, she’s also a half-sister to the dam of New Zealand Derby winner Vin de Dance and her sire Ekraar, was a really good sire of stayers notably Oaks queen Rising Romance, whose yearling colt by Snitzel topped Inglis Easter this week selling for $2.5million. Jack can certainly stay all day, but how explosive he is in this grade remains to be seen!
11/ Toscanini (3c Fastnet Rock x Soubrettes, by High Chaparral (IRE) – Second in G3 BRC Grand Prix (2200m) last December, three runs since against older horses in restricted races fair.
Fastnet Rock gets his classic horses and while his dam Soubrettes is by noted staying sire High Chaparral, she was no stayer, throwing to her fast female family (think Star Satire, Satin Shoes) to emerge as a stakes-winning sprinter that never won beyond 1200m. I doubt very much 2400m will bring out his best.
12/ Favreau (NZ) (3g Tavistock x Lady Kipling, by Savabeel) – Fifth in the G1 Spring Champion Stakes and good form in easier races this prep before last start fourth in G2 Tulloch.
Another Kiwi bred by Tavistock and is a half-brother to G2 winning miler Faschino from G2 winning Savabeel mare that won up to 1600m. Second dam is by Winx’s broodmare sire Al Akbar, which is more trivia than a factor in assessing his merit which is considerable given the affinity between Tavistock and Zabeel, which has produced G1 stayers Werther, Tavago, Tarzino, Toffee Tongue and Johnny Get Angry.
13/ Rondino (3g Shamus Award x Little Less Lip, by Blevic) – Two wins up to 2000m at provincials from six starts and last start ninth in G2 Tulloch.
Half-brother to stakes-winning sprinter Split Lip from a female family of sprinter milers. His sire did win a Cox Plate and has left a Derby winner in Mr Quickie and dam sire Blevic won the Victoria Derby, but none of that gives me great optimism.
14/ Zakspeed (3g Spirit of Boom x Keep the Change , by Dash for Cash) – One win from nine starts in 2330m maiden at Newcastle and last start sixth G2 Tulloch Stakes.
I don’t see Spirit of Boom siring a Derby winner, but Zakspeed’s dam Keep the Change is a sister to a stakes-winner at 2200m, so can see why Wendy Roche is dreaming the Derby dream and having won the Doncaster last year with Nettoyer, nobody can knock her for dreaming big!
15/ Olympic Gaze (3g Olympic Glory (IRE) x Wingstack, by Lonhro) – Winner at Muswellbrook three starts back over 2300m is hardly glowing form for a Derby with his most recent run a fourth over 2400m in midweek metro class.
By an underperforming shuttle sire that was a brilliant miler by Choisir from a fast female family bereft of any stayers so am inclined to think he’s a slow horse that tries his best when he’s hard fit and that’s not going to be good enough to win the Blue Riband.
16/ Montefilia (3f Kermadec x Bana Wu (GB), by Shirocco)- Won the G1 Flight Stakes (1600m) and Spring Champion Stakes (2000m) before third in VRC Oaks (2500m) off a three week break, which may not have been ideal. Last start third in Rosehill Guineas.
From the first crop of Teofilo’s Group I winning son Kermadec. Her dam is a stakes-placed winner up to 2000m and is a grand-daughter of mighty staying sire Monsun from the family of noted stayers such as triple Oaks winner Ramruma, Caulfield Cup winner All the Good and Yorkshire, who contested a Melbourne Cup. Has always had Oaks filly written all over her and that might be enough to win this Derby.
Selections:
1/ Montefilia
2/ Lion’s Roar
3/ Rocket Spade
Roughies/ The Frontman, Explosive Jack
