The Armchair Punter looks at the Super Saturday weekend

Stephen Brassel - Tuesday March 14

I can't believe there is even a discussion about changing the Caulfield Cup to weight-for-age while I'm sacking a star sprinter whenever he starts at Flemington. I'm also asking where was the magic man's wand when he needed it and also giving a Melbourne Cup winning hoop 10-out-of-10 for a winning ride.

The Armchair Punter says forget this bloke down the Flemington straight.
Photo: Darryl Sherer

NO WFA FOR CAULFIELD CUP

There has been plenty of debate about the Caulfield Cup and the possibility of having it changed to WFA conditions and I for one can't believe we are giving air to this discussion.

Bottom line is the race must remain a handicap forever and talk about turning it into a WFA race is ludicrous.

For one thing the betting aspect of the race would be ruined. Then there's the point of the Cox Plate at WFA being run a week later.

As a WFA race there would be limited chances in the Caulfield Cup although it would certainly benefit races like the Geelong Cup with those chasing a penalty heading to that race among others.

If you want to see what a WFA 2400m does as a lead-up take a peek at the BMW in Sydney. It is worth $1 million but has become virtually a non-event on the calendar in recent years.

Remember one thing, the Melbourne Cup is a handicap not a WFA event and in recent years with the weights being compressed the top notch stayers are all given their chance on the first Tuesday in November and accordingly are aimed specifically at that race.

In the history of the Caulfield-Melbourne Cup only 11 horses have won the double with Ethereal the last to achieve the feat back in 2001. The previous four winners were Might And Power (1997), Doriemus (1995), Let's Elope (1991) and Gurner's Lane (1982).

What has happened in recent years has been more horses running in the Cox Plate enroute to the Cup with four of the last 11 winners coming via the Plate, those being Fiorente (2013), Green Moon (2012), Efficient (2007) and Makybe Diva (2005).

The argument may be at WFA the imports here for the Melbourne Cup could be targeted at the Caulfield Cup on the way but the reality is of the four overseas horses to win the Cup since 2006 two came through the Geelong Cup (Dunaden, Americain) while Delta Blues (2006) finished third in the Caulfield Cup and Protectionist ran fourth in the Herbert Power.

And it must be remembered many of the imports aren't in the habit of running a couple of weeks prior to a major assignment anyway.

FORGET THE STRAIGHT COURSE FOR EXTREME CHOICE

There's no doubt Extreme Choice is an outstanding sprinter but I'm happy to bet around him if he ever goes down the Flemington straight again.

The colt has now started twice down the 1200m straight course and on both occasions has been unplaced when a heavily backed favourite.

On Saturday Joao Moreira couldn't get any cover on the horse but he never looked comfortable and was off the bit a long way out before finishing sixth.

He's a different horse around a circle though having won four from six with the only two failures being an eighth in the Golden Slipper, when he missed the start and a solid finishing third in the Oakleigh Plate.

WHEN YOUR LUCK'S OUT YOUR LUCK'S OUT

Gerald Ryan must be shaking his head at the results of the last week as despite winning the Black Opal with Trapeze Artist last Sunday it has been pretty much a shocker since then.

While Trapeze Artist did win the big two-year-old race at Canberra his stablemate Chauffeur was beaten out of the placings as a $2.90 favourite eliminating him from Golden Slipper calculations.

During the week he had a couple of second placings at Warwick Farm before it all went terribly wrong at Rosehill on Saturday with Condor Heroes and Albumin both scratched at the barrier before the Pago Pago which was their last chance to force a passage into the Slipper.

Condor Heroes bolted on his way to the barriers and was taken out while just two minutes later Albumin got his hind-leg up on the running board in the barriers and suffered abrasions forcing his withdrawal.

Just to top off his two-year-old tale of woe Ryan had two of the favourite in Sunday's Wellington Boot but again finished empty handed with third placing being his best result after one missed the start and the other had every chance.

AUSTRALIAN CUP TRIFECTA ALL TOP CLASS

Humidor deserved his win in Saturday's Australian Cup but the runs of those directly behind the Darren Weir-trained galloper were both outstanding and they're worth following as the carnival moves on to Sydney.

Jameka has had no luck in her three starts this preparation all from wide gates and again on Saturday she had to do plenty of work to get outside the leader before being run down late by Humidor but it was Exospheric which really caught my eye.

The Freedman-trained import was tracking Humidor coming to the turn but when Damian Lane went wide on the winner Damien Oliver elected to ride for luck and looked for runs through the field.

He was held up a couple of times before charging through near the fence when the race was all over.

I wondered whether the result would have still been the same had Olly decided to instead follow Humidor and make his run on the outside with that horse.

DIRTY DAY FOR OLLY

Damien Oliver was expected to be around the money most of the day at Flemington on Saturday but despite a couple of placings aboard Miss Rose De Lago and Exospheric it was a day he would probably rather forget.

In the opener Dusty Jack raced wide throughout before weakening with Olly reporting the gelding had come to the end of his preparation which was the same he reported to stewards after Villa Rosa finished second last in her race.

He was aboard the hot favourite Eshtiraak in the Sires' Produce but, after being awkward to begin the Hayes' and Dabernig trained two-year-old failed to run on as expected and finished out of the placings.

Then came his third placing on Rose De Lago before finishing fourth on Sheidel in the Newmarket and third aboard Exospheric in the Australian Cup in what was a real eye-catcher.

And this is where the day hit it's depths for the champion hoop with Olly copping a suspension for cleaning up Tally in the straight.

THE MAGIC MAN MUST HAVE LEFT HIS WAND AT HOME

Coming off the back of his record breaking eight winners at Sha Tin last Sunday Joao Moreira had a full book of rides at Flemington on Saturday but he must have left his magic wand in Hong Kong when packing for this week's hit-and-run trip.

His nine Flemington rides included four favourites but despite his best endeavours only one, Circular was able to greet the judge but it was Moreira's ride on Hursley in the second event where the magic went desperately missing.

What looked a perfect ride for 90 percent of the race turned into a nightmare over the concluding 200m when Hursley was pinned behind the leaders and never got clear at any stage.

The opening event may have signalled a big day wasn't on the cards for Moreira when, after giving favourite Cannyescent a perfect ride the four-year-old failed to finish the race off with the star hoop being unable to offer any explanation.

However there may well have been a legitimate excuse with stewards later reporting an endoscopic examination detected a degree of internal exercise induced pulmonary haemorrhage so I think we can give Cannyescent the benefit of the doubt on this occasion.

IF YOU STARTED YOUR OWN RACETRACK

It was put to me during the week how would you manage the punting aspect of business if you were theoretically building a new racetrack in a foreign jurisdiction.

The discussion centred around the pro's and con's of corporate bookmakers versus a tote only model and what would be most beneficial to your bottom line.

My counterpart and I decided it was quite a simple answer really, you would run the new racetrack as tote only as with the monopoly you can do as you please.

With no competition from the corporates creating market tension punters would be obviously disadvantaged re product offerings but it would be very much a case of 'out of sight, out of mind'.

We looked at the massive pools in Hong Kong where the takeout varies between 14.25% and 25% and illegal and overseas bookmakers are outlawed.

As a single example, using the last race at Shatin on Sunday the combined win and place pools, inclusive of 13 commingling partners was just over $AUD14m while the quinella and duet pools held a massive $AUD18m.

The win and place takeout would be just on $AUD2m while the quinella and duet takeout would have been $AUD4.45m. That's close to $AUD6.5m for just one race!

IT SEEMS TAB FIXED ODDS RESTRICTIONS HAVE BEEN RELAXED

Virtually overnight the fixed odds restrictions we suggested were in play at TAB retail venues last weekend appear to have been lifted.

After the piece in last week's Armchair column suggesting fixed odds were being enforced to win the bare minimum $500, professional punter Sean Bartholomew reported back on Monday he had been able to get set at a higher limit once again.

There was plenty of debate out there about the issue of Sean being a professional so what did it matter what he was getting set for however the bottom line here is if this restriction was in play it affects us all.

I doubt there would have been anyone out there accepting of a trip to the TAB on race morning to have $20 on a $51 chance getting chopped back to $10!

CLASSIC PROVES AN EASY WALL TO CLIMB FOR KERRIN

Kerrin McEvoy certainly got the gong for his outstanding ride on Dawn Wall in Friday's Kembla Grange Classic getting the Chris Waller-trained filly home first in the $200,000 feature.

From the widest gate he took lightly raced daughter of Fastnet Rock back to last from the 1600m start and picked his way through on the inside to be stalking the leaders on straightening.

All the while one of his main dangers, Faraway Town was being angled wider from the 700m by Corey Brown.

McEvoy was able to pinch many lengths off Faraway Town and when the sprint was on in the straight Dawn Wall was angled across behind the favourite Lubiton and into the better going.

Over the concluding stages Dawn Wall proved too strong and overhauled Lubiton racing clear on the line in the manner of a filly going on to bigger and better things.

There's no doubt it was a 10-out-of-10 effort from the Melbourne Cup winning hoop.

FOLLOW ME

Toga Picta is a lovely big horse who will have derived great benefit from the experience when fourth in the Sires' Produce at Flemington on Saturday.

He certainly had his chance but couldn't reel in the leaders however he kept closing right to the line and he'll be even better when he gets over even more ground than the 1400m of the Sires'.

It was only his second start in a race after winning a Wyong maiden on debut and Toga Picta is destined to win a good race. Follow him with confidence.

FORGET ME

Dothraki gets the sin bin after his second placing at Rosehill on Saturday when swamped by stablemate Artistry.

If ever there was a race for Dothraki to get back into the winners circle then Saturday's race was it and he looked to have the race at his mercy but lo and behold he found another way to get beat.

His last win was back in October 2015 and in 12 runs since he's been placed four times but can't get to the post first. Until he does the six-year-old won't be getting me.

Anything off the record? stephen.brassel@racenet.com.au

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