Coming into Saturday after a couple of good winners at Warwick Farm midweek so I'm betting with extreme confidence on a star at Flemington and just having the one crack at Rosehill in a final Slipper lead-up race.
TOGA PICTA (Flemington Race 4 No 7)
Massive rise in grade from a debut Wyong maiden win to Group 2 level at only his second start but the Godolphin team wouldn't have sent Toga Picta south for this big assignment if they didn't have a big opinion of the Lonhro colt. He was heavily backed at Wyong and only arrived on the line but Toga Picta was never going to be suited around the tight Wyong track and it took him all day to balance up before charging through the line and he's not going to know himself on the wide open spaces of Flemington. Prior to his debut effort Toga Picta had trialled like a good horse and this certainly doesn't look a vintage Sires so I'm happy to have a throw at the stumps.
BET: EACH-WAY
ODDS: $10 @ Bet365
TULIP (Rosehill Race 4 No 1)
Certainly hard not to be impressed with the win of Limbo Soul in midweek company but it was a maiden and she meets the no.1 saddlecloth carrier Tulip at level weights here. Tulip has raced three times for an impressive win, a narrow second to Limestone in a Blue Diamond lead-up at Caulfield and a solid fourth in the Diamond behind stablemate Catchy when strong through the line. Tulip is considered one of the better youngsters in the 'on fire' Hayes and Dabernig yard and she's pushing on towards the Slipper so happy to go with the better value as the form around her is no doubt superior to Limbo Soul although granted there's a massive unknown with the X factor on that filly. Tulip should settle just back off the speed and with even luck in running think she'll get over the top of the favourite.
BET: STRAIGHT OUT
ODDS: $5.50 @ Sportsbet ($6.50 PowerPlay)
I AM A STAR (Flemington Race 5 No2)
Understanding she's short and you don't need to be Einstein to find her but I'm still happy to utilise I Am A Star as a banker in some multi's as on weights and measures she's a good thing and clearly superior to these. Bet365 are still offering top odds of $2.75 after a few of the corporates went up $3.60 which was unbelievable odds. I Am Star is an outstanding filly and proven at Group I level having won the Myer Classic in the Spring along with finishing second to Global Glamour in the Thousand Guineas. She resumed with a great second to Super Cash in the Rubiton Stakes with Chautauqua third and Hellbent fourth before having to overcome a wide gate when far from disgraced finishing seventh in the Oakleigh Plate behind Sheidel. For all of those Group performances I Am A Star lines up here as a 105-rater on level weights while her major dangers, Kenedna and Ellicazoom come in as 82 and 78 raters respectively. In a handicap they would be getting 11.5kg and 13.5kg so taking that into account, and on what we've seen so far it appears only bad luck can beat the Shane Nichols trained filly and that being the case I'm still happy to dive into the $2.75 and bet up.
BET: STRAIGHT OUT
ODDS: $2.75 @ Bet365
EXTREME CHOICE (Flemington Race 7 No 6)
Thought his run in the Oakleigh Plate was very good when charging home over the last 400m to finish third behind the speedsters Sheidel and Faatinah. Joao Moreira rode Sheidel on that occasion and the 'magic man' hops on Extreme Choice here off the back of a lazy eight winners at Shatin last Sunday. Extreme Choice meets Sheidel 2kg better at the weights for just over a length and he's sure to strip fitter for this. Certainly not the easiest of races and I'm respecting Spieth, Illustrious Lad and Tivaci as the main dangers but have a high opinion of Extreme Choice and an even higher opinion of the jockey.
BET: STRAIGHT OUT
ODDS: $6.50 @ Centrebet
EXOSPHERIC (Flemington Race 8 No 6)
Caught the eye when running on strongly in the Peter Young Stakes behind Stratum Star and ready to chalk up his first Aussie success here. Going back three run when debuting here the 5YO was very good when third behind Jameka in the Caulfield Cup before a sound run when eighth in the Melbourne Cup. The Lee and Anthony Freedman trained galloper had four starts over 2000m back in England recording two wins and a third placing and that first-up performance suggested he's back in top order and ready for this with the old firm of Freedman and Oliver back together for another Group I success.
BET: STRAIGHT OUT
ODDS: $9.50 @ Centrebet
