Worth $1million, the Group I VRC Kennedy Oaks at Flemington on Thursday is run over a testing 2500m and we have a hot favourite that is head and shoulders above her peers, but can she run the trip?
1/ Montefilia (3f Kermadec x Bana Wu (GB), by Shirocco) –Won the G1 Flight Stakes (1600m) and then the G1 Spring Champion Stakes (2000m), so has a big class edge over her rivals and if her trainer has her fit for this off a break of three and a half weeks she is the horse to beat.
From the first crop of Group I winner Kermadec, a son of Teofilo, who sired Twilight Payment to win the Melbourne Cup.. Her dam is a stakes-placed winner up to 2000m and is a grand-daughter of mighty staying sire Monsun from the family of noted stayers such as triple Oaks winner Ramruma, Caulfield Cup winner All the Good and Yorkshire, who contested a Melbourne Cup. Has Oaks written all over her.
2/ Personal (3f Fastnet Rock x Personify, by Galileo) – Is turning into a bridesmaid with seconds at her past three starts including G1 Thousand Guineas and last Saturday in G2 Wakeful Stakes over 2000m.
Fastnet Rock has had his share of Oaks winners including Qualify, who won the Epsom Oaks in the UK and is bred on the exact same cross as Personal. Her female family is more speed oriented however, so the longer trip does raise some questions, but her class will take her a long way.
3/ Café Rizu (3f Rubick x Calm Smytzer, by Zabeel) – Two wins from eight starts including a Flemington success at 1800m, but was never in the hunt at her last three starts in stakes races.
Hard to see Rubick as a source of classic horses and while her dam is a stakes-placed daughter of champion sire Zabeel, Calm Smytzer was a speedier type of Zabeel with her wins coming at 1400m. Café Rizu is a half-sister to a New Zealand Oaks place-getter in Star Karen, but I would not read too much into that as she was by Camelot!
4/ Succeed Indeed (3f Akeed Mofeed (GB) x Lucky Morna, by Ferocity) – G3 placed last season at two, but only one win from six starts scoring at Sandown over 1600m and last three starts in stakes races only fair.
Her sire Akeed Mofeed was very effective at 2000m, but no further and her dam was a stakes-placed winner at 1200m from a family largely bereft of Black Type, so am not getting any inspiration from the pedigree page.
5/ Salto Angel (NZ) (3f Sacred Falls x Jacilo, by Entrepreneur (GB) – Progressive maiden with three seconds from five starts and ran well for fifth in G2 Wakeful and second in the Ethereal Stakes, both over 2000m.
By Doncaster Handicap winner Sacred Falls and is a half-sister to G1 Queensland Oaks winner Miss Keepsake and G2 winning miler Villifye from a renowned classic family that has produced the likes of Grosvenor, Mahaya and Lonhro. A maiden won the Derby on Saturday and this maiden is certainly capable of winning the Oaks if Montefilia has an off day.
6/ Miravalle (3f Redoute’s Choice x Condesaar, by Xaar (GB) – One win from six starts coming in a maiden at Warwick Farm over 1400m, but sixth in Spring Champion Stakes and fast finishing fourth in the Wakeful put her in the mix.
Three-quarter sister-in-blood to G1 New Zealand Derby winner Redoute’s Dancer and half-sister to dual Group I winner Yankee Rose, who failed in this race as a hot favourite in 2016 after placing in the Cox Plate. Quality filly that could easily give Redoute’s Choice another Oaks winner, if not in this race then later in the season.
7/ Tyche Goddess (3f Teofilo (IRE) x Corneila Marie, by Reset) – One win from five starts in Bendigo maiden at 1400m, but staked a serious claim with a tenacious close up third in the Wakeful.
By a serious classic sire in Teofilo and while the female family is primarily about speed with her dam Cornelia Marie a stakes-winner at 1100m, she is by Zabeel’s high class son Reset and her dam is by Cox Plate winner Rubiton, so on that basis am inclined to think Tyche Goddess can be in this for a long way.
8/ Biarchi (3f Free Eagle (IRE) x Ransom Rouge, by Red Ransom (USA) – Two wins from six starts, those wins coming at last two runs in Adelaide over 1800m.
The only Australian winner so far for High Chaparral’s Group I winning son Free Eagle and dam comes from a top class North American family packed with Black Type horses successful to around 2000m. The High Chaparral factor keeps her under consideration.
9/ Star of Eden (3f Wandjina x Jujube, by Encosta de Lago) – Just three starts and placed in all, most recently third in the Ethereal.
By Australian Guineas winner Wandjina and dam is stakes-placed Jujube, a half-sister to Group I winner Marble Halls and to the dams of Group I winning fillies Amphitrite and Sleek Chassis, so there’s plenty of class in the pedigree although the 2500 might be an ask.
10/ Art Glass (3f Sebring x Crystal Flute, by Encosta de Lago) – One win in six starts coming in 2265m maiden on a heavy track at Geelong, but made no impression in Ethereal Stakes last start.
By proven classic sire Sebring from blue-blooded Crystal Flute, who won up to 1600m and is a sister to 2400m SW Precious Lorraine from the family of Redoute’s Choice, Manhattan Rain and Shoals. Her pedigree appears to outstrip her ability at this point in time.
11/ Vilanculos (3f Crowded House (GB) x Persinette, by Helenus) – Maiden that has placed in three of four starts and last start third in Listed Geelong Classic at 2200m.
A homebred for renowned Australian breeder of stayers Trevor Delroy, who was represented by Cetshwayo in the Derby on Saturday and this filly comes from the same family, her dam by Victoria Derby winner Helenus. She has a double cross of Arc winner Rainbow Quest and her pedigree has been planned from day dot with an Oaks in mind.
12/ Hard Squeeze (3f All Too Hard x Exsqueeze, by Encosta de Lago) – One win from five starts coming in 2124m Echuca maiden.
All Too Hard better known for his sprinter milers, but her unraced dam is a daughter of Kiwi Group I winner Juice, who was successful up to 2000m and a long way back there is some good stout staying Kiwi blood. Bolted in at Echuca, but this will be a lot harder.
13/ Yatton (3f Savabeel x O’Reilly Rose, by O’Reilly) – Placed once in four starts and was a good fourth in Flemington Oaks Trial at 1800m, before disappointing in Ethereal on wet track, maybe not to her liking?
Bred on super successful Savabeel x O’Reilly cross and dam O’Reilly Rose is a G3 winner up to 2000m and a three-quarter sister-in-blood to G1 Newmarket winner Shamexpress. Further back plenty of staying blood in the pedigree which features Caulfield Cup winner Affinity, so she has the pedigree to suggest she could improve.
14/ Swindon Lass (3f Wordsmith x Splendid Thing, by Encosta de Lago) – Unplaced in four starts, best effort a fifth in the Flemington Oaks Trial at 1800m before failing in Ethereal, similar form to the previous filly.
Her sire Wordsmith has produced both Tasmanian Oaks and Derby winners and her grand-dam Hansuyen is a full sister to New Zealand Derby winner St Reims and Melbourne Cup runner up Champagne, the family also producing dual Oaks winner Bonneval. Can see why connections have her in the race, but maybe the Tasmanian Oaks next year might be a better option.
Selections
1/ Montefilia
2/ Personal
3/ Miravalle
Roughie
Tyche Goddess
