The modern Melbourne Cup is a very different race to the one Brew won back in 2000 as in the 20 years since then the race has attracted widespread international participation both in terms of foreign trained horses and Northern Hemisphere sourced horses prepared by locals with the specific goal of winning our greatest race, so does pedigree matter anymore?
For runners with proven form at 3000m plus, the pedigree point is moot as whatever genetics might be theorized from the pedigree page, have already been demonstrated in the horse, but for those untried at the trip we’ll have a look to see what might unfold in the last furlong on Tuesday.
If there is one thing I’ve learned from this exercise it’s that this is the most open Cup race we’ve seen for years!
1/ Anthony Van Dyck (IRE) (5h Galileo x Believe ‘n’ Succeed, by Exceed and Excel) - Anthony made headlines in the Australian bloodstock world in 2019 when he won the Epsom Derby for being the first English Derby winner bred from an Australian mare, so if his mum sounds familiar you are on the right track.
She was a lightning fast filly by speed sire Exceed and Excel that never won beyond 1100m and won the Blue Diamond Preview before finishing fourth in the Group I Blue Diamond Stakes. Her only other stakes-winning foal is Bounding, the Champion Sprinter of New Zealand for 2013 – 2014, and she never won beyond 1400m.
Anthony has the perfect mix of mum’s speed and dad’s stamina that has made him very successful up to 2400m as we saw in his Caulfield Cup lead up, but there may be a limitation to that stamina in a marathon like the Cup, but class will take him a very long way.
2/ Avilius (GB) (7g Pivotal x Alessandria, by Sunday Silence) – Triple Group I winner, but never won beyond 2500m and only attempt at two miles beat two home in 2018 Melbourne Cup.
He’s by a champion sire of largely sprinter milers up to 2000m, so nothing in pedigree or form would suggest two miles carrying more weight that he did last time is what he’s looking for.
3/ Vow and Declare (5g Declaration of War (USA) x Geblizt, by Testa Rossa – If I was writing this preview last year I would have had this horse as being suspect to run the trip and he came out and won, so you can’t argue with that.
With hindsight, we now know his sire is a very good source of long distance runners and has obviously over ridden his immediate female pedigree which on paper is more about speed, albeit his half-brother Lycurgus was also a stayer and he was by a speed horse in Star Witness, so there is something in Geblizt that generates staying talent.
Vow and Declare won it once, so am not going to say he can’t win it again if you fancy him.
4/ Master of Reality (IRE) (6g Frankel x L’Ancresse, by Darshaan) – Second in the race last year before being relegated to fourth and back here to make amends with only half a kg more to carry
Absolutely bred to be a long distance stayer and so much so his connections have only started him once in a race shorter than 2400m which was his 2000m debut and that says something.
His sire Frankel gets high class horses over all trips and his mother and her family are all high class European long distance stayers, Master of Reality gets 10 out of 10 for a staying pedigree.
From a form perspective, he has the dreaded gear change of synthetic hoof filler first time which gives me some reservation given the track will be unforgiving if it’s a good 3 come Cup time.
5/ Sir Dragonet (IRE) (5h Camelot x Sparrow by Oasis Dream) – Cox Plate winner that has loads of class and has won up to 2500m and was fourth in the English St Leger at 2900m, albeit that run raised the question of whether he didn’t get the trip or whether the ground was too firm and both of those things could be a factor on Tuesday.
His sire Camelot is carving out a great reputation for producing stayers as did his sire Montjeu, a more dour horse than Sadler’s Wells other champion sire son Galileo, whose female family is what has produced Sir Dragonet. Champions cover the pedigree page for Sir Dragonet, but the slight issue is with his dam Sparrow, a six furlong 2YO winner by a champion sprinter in Oasis Dream.
Her speed is probably what has made him such an elite horse at 2000m, but it might also prove a hindrance when he has to face the hard slog of two miles.
6/ Twilight Payment (IRE) (8g Teofilo (IRE) x Dream on Buddie, by Oasis Dream) – He’s an accomplished long distance stayer that has won at two miles and was beaten less than four lengths when 11th in Cup last year from a wide gate.
His sire Teofilo is another son of Galileo that has already sired a Cup winner in Cross Counter and while his dam is by the same speed sire, Oasis Dream, as the previous horse Sir Dragonet, she did win twice at 1m and her mother and half-sister were both 2400m stakes-winners. He’s a proven stayer.
7/ Verry Elleegant (NZ) (5m Zed x Opulence, by Danroad) – She was a headstrong, quirky three year-old filly that has developed into an outstanding racemare and her six Group I wins on the board is more than any other runner in this race.
She runs 2400m strongly so am prepared to take her on trust for the additional half mile given her grand-sire is Zabeel and she traces in tail female line to Eight Carat, who has given us one of the most successful dynasties of stakes-winners over all distances ever seen in this part of the world.
For some reason, Verry Elleegant reminds me of the great New Zealand bred mare Leilani, who started favourite in the 1974 Melbourne Cup, but was beaten into second by her stablemate Think Big.
If she gets the right run, she’ll give it all she’s got.
8/ Mustajeer (GB) (8g Medicean x Qelaan, by Dynaformer) – He’s a well proven long distance stayer that was fifth in the Sydney Cup earlier this year on a bog and beat one runner home in last year’s Cup.
His dam won up to 2400m and is by the 2010 Cup winner Americain’s sire Dynaformer, so he’s got staying blood, but he was four lengths behind Verry Ellegant when second to her in the G1 Tancred and about the same again in the Caulfield Cup, so I can’t see him getting any closer to her here.
9 / Stratum Albion (GB) (8g Dansili x Lunar Phase by Galileo) – Long distance runner, who mixes hurdling with flat races and five of his six wins have been in races of 3200m or longer.
Lacks class having never won a stakes race, but stamina not an issue and his sire Dansili has had success here as sire of Sydney Cup winner Grand Marshal.
10/ Dashing Willoughby (GB) (5g Nathaniel x Miss Dashwood by Dylan Thomas) – If you can forget his inglorious last in the Caulfield Cup when making his Australian debut, this horse has a great profile in terms of pedigree and form.
Has been competing successfully in two mile races in the UK this year, much more tractable since being gelded and is bred for the job being by the great mare Enable’s sire Nathaniel, a staying son of Galileo, from a strong staying female family.
It would take a leap of faith to be on him from gate 19 with a duck egg next to his name, but stranger things have happened!
11/ Finche (GB) (7g Frankel x Binche, by Woodman) - Will it be third time lucky for Finche, who has been fourth and seventh in the past two Melbourne Cups?
He's the second runner for Frankel and I think past form proves Finche can stay so there’s no need to delve into pedigree, what you need to consider is that Finche is a unique type of thoroughbred in his size and frame and horses such as he take a long time to attain their full physical strength.
He’s there now and if Finche can’t win this year it’s not going to happen for him.
12/ Prince of Arran (GB) ) (8g Shirocco x Storming Sue, by Storming Home) – Loves coming to Australia and has placed in past two Melbourne Cups as well as winning Geelong Cup and Lexus Stakes.
A grand-son of Monsun, who has sired three Melbourne Cup winners in Protectionist, Fiorente and Almandin, Prince of Arran is one racehorse that loves his job and will give Jamie Kah a great chance to become the second woman to win a Melbourne Cup.
13/ Surprise Baby (NZ) (6g Shocking x Bula Baby, by Kaapstad) – His sire Shocking won the 2009 Melbourne Cup and this horse was a great fifth last year beaten less than a length.
Pedigree and form both tell the story and connections have set him exclusively for this race and with a good gate and champion jockey is not hard to see him in the finish.
14/ King of Leogrance (FR) (6g Camelot x Amourette, by Halling) – Bolted in with the Adelaide Cup over 3200m, albeit much easier than a Melbourne Cup, but his efforts in the longer race show he’s got the right stamina for this.
Second runner for Camelot and female family reinforces what we already know…. he’s a serious long distance stayer.
15/ Russian Camelot (IRE) (4h Camelot x Lady Babooshka, by Cape Cross) – Won the SA Derby over 2500m in a canter at his only start over a long distance and everything since has been positive.
Another runner for Camelot, his dam is an unraced daughter of Cape Cross, an outstanding sire that left plenty of stayers, and his female family is one of the best in Europe, so there is nothing on the pedigree page or form guide not to like.
16/ Steel Prince (IRE) (6g Nathaniel x Steel Princess, by Danehill) – Saves his best form for 2400m and beyond and was a good ninth last year in Cup beaten only two lengths.
Half-brother to Group I winning stayer Sarah Lynx, so has plenty of quality in his pedigree and form suggests he’s still improving and the prospect of firm ground holds no fears for him..
17/ The Chosen One (NZ) (5h Savabeel x The Glitzy One, by Flying Spur) – 17th in last year’s Melbourne Cup beaten five lengths and then a close second in the Sydney Cup at his only two runs at two miles.
By top Kiwi sire Savabeel and while his dam is by Flying Spur, she was actually a stakes-placed stayer winning up to 2500m and it’s a great old NZ family packed with stayers, so if you’re encouraged by his great Caulfield Cup third stick with him.
18/ Ashrun (Fr) (5h Authorized x Ashantee, by Areion) – Won the Hotham on Saturday at 2500m under 61kg and placed at his last two runs in France before coming here at 3000m.
By another Epsom Derby winning son of Montjeu in Authorized, best known here as the sire of Hartnell, and comes from stout German female family, dam a SW up to 2200m and his half-sister a SW to 2400m.
19/ Warning (4g Declaration of War (USA) x Livia, by Galileo) – Won the Victoria Derby last year by a big margin and was then sixth in Australian Derby and third in SA Derby to Russian Camelot.
He comes from an Australian female family that is about speed, but his sire got the winner of this race last year in Vow and Declare and his dam is by Galileo, so that gives me confidence Warning could easily jump out of the ground here and surprise.
20/ Etah James (NZ) (8m Raise the Flag (GB) x Etah, by Danasinga – Won the Sydney Cup on a bog and fourth in Auckland Cup so is proven at the trip.
Lacks the class of some of her rivals, but can certainly stay as she is bred to do.
21/ Tiger Moth (IRE) (4h Galileo x Lesson in Humility, by Mujadil) – Has had just four starts but was second in Irish Derby and then won a G3 over 2400m in impressive style before coming out here.
Second runner in the race for Galileo and while he’s proven at 2400m, his female family does raise a few questions in the context of 3200m. His dam was a G3 winning sprinter of six races at 5 and 6f and was placed in the Group I Golden Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot.
All of the stakes-winners in the first three dams of his pedigree are sprinter milers, so Tiger Moth is somewhat of a fruit out of season!
22/ Oceanex (NZ) (5m Ocean Park x Danex, by Danasinga) – Won the G2 Matriarch Stakes (2000m) at this carnival last year and secured her Cup berth winning the 2800m Andrew Ramsden.
By Cox Plate winner Ocean Park and dam was fourth in NZ Oaks and has plenty of stout blood, so Oceanex has enough pedigree to suggest she’s not completely out of her depth here, but she’d have to put in a career best performance to get in the Top 10.
23/ Miami Bound (NZ) (4m Reliable Man (GB) x Arapaho Miss, by Danehill Dancer (IRE) - Won the VRC Oaks over 2500m here last year by a space, so we have both the Oaks and Derby winner (Warning) engaged in this year’s Cup…. so much for the myth that those races are the ruination of their respective winners.
This mare is by French Derby winner Reliable Man, who combines the blood of Darshaan and Sadler’s Wells, so that’s a big tick and she is a half-sister to a two mile stakes-winner at Flemington in De Little Engine from a VRC Oaks winner in Arapaho Miss, so another big tick.
Miami Bound hit form last start and is ready to rumble as she seeks to become the first VRC Oaks winner to return the next year and win the Cup since Light Fingers achieved the feat in 1965.
24/ Persan (4g Pierro x Ofcoursiecan, by Mossman) – One of the most consistent stayers in training and has worked through his grades booking his Cup berth with a win in the G3 Bart Cummings over 2500m.
He might have been a Golden Slipper winner, but Pierro has been remarkably successful as a source of classic horses and has had a number of Oaks and Derby winners to date with Persan his latest staying success story.
His mother Ofcoursiecan won the Group I Coolmore Classic (1500m) and her half-brother Gimmethegreenlight was a Group I winner at 1600m in South Africa and sired Yulong Prince to win the Group I Cantala Stakes (1600m) last Saturday.
On paper it would be a stretch to believe 3200m is ideal for Persan, but he’s so tough and honest I can’t rule him out of a place.
Selections
1/ Russian Camelot
2/ Finche
3/ Verry Elleegant
4/Master of Reality
Roughies
Steel Prince
Miami Bound
