Despite the heavy track I'm still happy to play Randwick and also having a couple of bets at Flemington while leaving Doomben alone with wide barriers impeding the chances of some of my early selections.
BEST GUESS (Randwick Race 2 No 4)
Lightly raced gelding with just the four runs under his belt but progressing nicely and loves rain affected ground. On debut raced on the speed when third on a heavy (9) at Warwick Farm then led them up and bolted in on a soft (6) at Gosford. However, it's his last run which got me in for this when he led throughout to win easily at Canterbury 1250m on a soft (6). Did it easily last time and drawn perfectly here to get a nice sit on Conchita who has drawn inside and has plenty of speed.
BET: WIN
ODDS: $5 @ Sportsbet ($6 PowerPlay), William Hill ($6 PricePump), Luxbet, CrownBet, Bet365, Centrebet, Palmerbet, Unibet)
GRUNDERZEIT (Randwick Race 7 No 10)
Ordinary at Scone last time and sent back to the trials after beating only one home. Previously at Hawkesbury had no luck when 1-1/2 lengths sixth behind Felines and his recent trial suggests the gelding is worth another chance here. Surprisingly his only five wins have been at Canterbury but has raced well elsewhere and his only start on a heavy track resulted in a second at Canterbury while his past three soft track runs have all been Randwick placings.
BET: WIN
ODDS: $7 @ Ladbrokes ($8 OddsBoost)
CURRAGH (Randwick Race 8 No 2)
Melbournian making the trip north and looks to have found the perfect race. Has been working up to 2000m and four runs back from a spell have him primed here. Last time out was a bit flat footed on a good track at Flemington but gets onto his preferred affected ground here. While he hasn't raced on a heavy surface, Curragh does have outstanding soft track stats winning three from four with the latest an easy 1-3/4-length win over The Chairman and Plymouth Road over 1600m at Moe last preparation. Gets 3kg off for Nick Heywood and betting with plenty of confidence at great odds.
BET: WIN
ODDS: $8 @ Ladbrokes ($9.50 OddsBoost), William Hill ($9.50 PricePump)
KIWIA (Flemington Race 6 No 2)
Impressive winning his first two starts at Warrnambool and Ballarat before up in grade and charged home for a close third Cranbourne 1600m last time out. The winner of that race Khutulun is a city winner and Ashlee Marie won well at Sandown during the week. Sure to be suited by the Flemington 2000m and with the claim for Jordan Childs gets in only 2.5kg over the limit. Just needs even luck to be winning.
BET: WIN
ODDS: $5.50 @ Ladbrokes ($6.50 OddsBoost), William Hill ($6.50 PricePump), CrownBet, Palmerbet, Centrebet, Bet365, Unibet
SOVEREIGN NATION (Flemington Race 7 No 6)
Has always shown plenty of ability but has been disappointing overall however now as a gelding this bloke may well be ready to get it all together. Resumed from a spell and was dominant running through the line powerfully over this course and distance and drawn to get the right run again. Only up 1.5kg and did beat a few of these last time out.
BET: WIN
ODDS: $6 @ Bet365