Only one Group I winner is engaged in Yankee Rose and she is an absolute superstar, but other fillies will fill the trifecta so let’s take a look at the best chances to chase the favourite home and put some value into your multiples.
1/ Yankee Rose (All American x Condesar, by Xaar) – Won the Group I ATC Spring Champion Stakes at 2000m and was third to Winx and Hartnell in the Cox Plate, so has vastly superior form to her rivals.
Her sire All American is best known for winning the Group I VRC Emirates Stakes at a mile, but is from a daughter of AJC Derby winner Strawberry Road, while her mother is a half-sister to New Zealand Derby winner Redoute’s Dancer. I believe only misfortune or an appalling ride will see her beaten.
2/ Missrock (Fastnet Rock x Miss Judgement, by Strategic) – Never won beyond 1200 metres and was waving white flag at the end of 2000 metres on Saturday when third in the Group II VRC Wakeful.
By a sire that can get an Oaks filly, but female side is speed through and through with names like Mrs Onassis and Lady Jakeo the star performers. Has good gate and Hugh Bowman, but last 500m is a massive concern.
3/ Sebring Dream (Sebring x Dream ‘n’ Believe, by Shamardal) – One win at 1400 metres and handy second in the Wakeful after running on in earlier spring races.
By a versatile sire, whose best offspring can often get a good trip, but female family is probably more geared towards optimum trip of around a mile and best horse in the family is former very good Gooree campaigner King Ivor, effective up to a mile. Drawn the outside so will need a lot of cuddling from JMac to figure in the finish.
4/ Moqueen (Uncle Mo (USA) x Money Begets Money, by Bite the Bullet (USA) - Broke her maiden beating colts in Listed ATC Dulcify Quality over a mile and strong to line in first Melbourne run for fourth in Listed MRC Ethereal Stakes at 2000m.
Dam won up to 1800m and is a sister to the dam of AJC Derby winner Criterion, so Moqueen comes from an outstanding family. Her sire Uncle Mo had the Kentucky Derby winner this year in Nyquist and had Hollywood Mo run sixth in the Victoria Derby on Saturday. Drawn well, no surprise to her in the placings.
5/ Eleonora (NZ) (Makfi (GB) x Sopra Tutto, by Van Nistelrooy (USA) – Relished step up to 2000m to win the Listed MRC Ethereal Stakes beating the Wakeful Stakes winner Tiamo Grace.
By the sire of ATC Australian Oaks winner Sofia Rosa from a daughter of Cups Queen Ethereal so is bred to stay all day and is peaking at right time for a stable that knows how to win the classics.
6/ Smart As You Think (So You Think x Satirical Lady, by Giant’s Causeway) – Broke her maiden with strong 2000m win at Moonee Valley beating older mares.
So You Think had the third and fourth in the VRC Derby on Saturday so we should have confidence that this filly can also stay the trip given she has plenty of stout European blood in her female family.
7/ Harlow Gold (NZ) (Tavistock x Belongs in Lights, by Belong to Me (USA) – Two wins to 1600m and has found the line well in Group I MRC Thousand Guineas and last start behind the colts in the Group II MVRC Super Vase at Moonee Valley.
By renowned staying sire and is a half-sister to a 2400m stakes-winner in Travolta while further back in family is former handy stayer Notwithstanding. Form and pedigree have her in the mix.
8/ Bella Sorellastra (Lope de Vega (Fr) x Holbrook Lass, by Rory’s Jester) - Two wins to 1400m and was second in the Group II VRC Edward Manifold Stakes at 1600m, but two runs since at 2000m only reasonable coming from way back from bad barriers.
Gets barrier one here but not convinced pedigree will help her as she is a half-sister to Caulfield Guineas winner In Top Swing from a speed family with first two dams by Rory’s Jester and Lunchtime.
9/ Peeking Duck (Al Samer x Bejing Bound, by Quest for Fame (GB) – Beaten a long way in the Group II VRC Edward Manifold Stakes (1600m) and then won narrowly at Cranourne last start over 2035m.
Has some staying blood on her dam side through Quest for Fame, El Qahir and Star Way, but class is questionable.
10/ Lamma Hilton (Casino Prince x Georgia Blues, by Pins) - Broke maiden three runs back over 2000m at Hawkesbury and luckless in two runs since at 2400 at Warwick Farm and then 2000 in the Wakeful.
By a sire not noted for stayers although has produced an SA Derby winner in Escado and is from a stout New Zealand female family of two mile stayers like Dealer’s Choice and Sky Flyer. Fit and seasoned for the trip, good gate, good jockey, good trainer, here’s your roughie!
11/ Lasqueti Spirit (Beneteau x Supriym Story, by General Nediym) – Maiden after nine starts and nothing in form or pedigree suggests that will change on Thursday.
12/ Nine Peak (Hinchinbrook x Sister Madrid, by Fuji Kiseki (Jpn) – Stakes placed at 1600m at two and was last start third to Peeking Duck at Cranbourne over 2035m, but still a maiden.
Dam did win at 2050m, but female family is generally sprinting and so is her sire Hinchinbrook, so not optimistic of her chances.
13/ My Girl Chilly ( Medaglia D’Oro (USA) x Rock of Ages, by Fastnet Rock) – Maiden winner at Donald over 2000m at fourth start and then only fair from bad gate in the Wakeful.
Dam won up to 2000m and sire is outstanding albeit his best Australian progeny have been sprinters, but am not feeling the vibe on this one.
14/ Red Velvet Swing (Star Witness x Purely Spectacular, by Pins) – Still a maiden after eight starts and was last start second over 2000m at Benalla.
By a sire that was a champion sprinter and is a half-sister to a Group I winning sprinter miler in Stratum Star, albeit a winner up to 2000m. From a terrific female family, but I don’t see 2500m as her preferred choice of distance.
15/ Penthouse Kitten (NZ) (Pentire (GB) x Scattercat, by Black Minnaloushe) – Giving away valuable race experience here as had just three starts, placing first two at Bairnsdale and Mornington over 1600 and 2050m before failing in Wakeful when she did plenty wrong.
By a great Kiwi sire and from a strong Kiwi classic type family, but I think this Oaks is not her Oaks.
Selections
1/ Yankee Rose
2/ Eleonora
3/ Smart As You Think
Roughie
Lamma Hilton
